QQ vs Zeejustin - 2nd hand of Party Super Tuesday

[AlcateL]

I think its a push, good fold equity and you could get a call from utg with a lower pair as its party [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[stevepa]

First plan was to reraise and fold to a push, but I just don't have enough chips to do that. I pushed, ZJ called after a couple seconds and his aces held up. I was really hoping to at least get to say I finished in last place in the tournament but I wasn't even close (1109/1121). Oh well, try harder next time I guess.

Steve

[PancakeBoy]

Saw this coming a mile away. QQ early in tourney is a 'piece of cheese' (T.J) against a raise like that coming from a solid player. Too much wishful thinking in this thread.

[mythrilfox]

Pushing seems like the worst possible move here. Is ZJ loose enough to where he's re-raising AK/AQ/AJ/JJ/TT/99 in the second hand of the tourney, with position, against an UTG raiser and a good solid caller? The fact that he's in position makes it even more likely he has a good hand. Why would he want to break his chances at winning a huge pot with JJ-99 by re-raising and seeing UTG push allin over the top?

The advice in this thread is shockingly bad. I don't know how ZJ plays, but if he is at all sane, he has AA-QQ/AK, with heavy weight given to AA-KK.

Very good post, well thought out. I would have folded probably.

[Tyler Durden]

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I pushed, ZJ called after a couple seconds and his aces held up.

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Gotta love the AA slowroll.

[stevepa]

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Very good post, well thought out. I would have folded probably.

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Folding can't be right. There's about 350 in there now and if you're that sure ZJ has aces/kings, then you will (99% of the time) stack him (and/or the other guy) when you flop a queen.

Steve

P.S. If you think you won't stack him when you flop a set and he flops an overpair then just call and play it like you would a set unless an A/K flops.

[stevepa]

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I pushed, ZJ called after a couple seconds and his aces held up.

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Gotta love the AA slowroll.

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I had no problem with it, there was another guy still to act so he may be trying to convince him to call too.

Steve

[Tyler Durden]

Oh yea, good point.

[stevepa]

[ QUOTE ]
Pushing seems like the worst possible move here. Is ZJ loose enough to where he's re-raising AK/AQ/AJ/JJ/TT/99 in the second hand of the tourney, with position, against an UTG raiser and a good solid caller? The fact that he's in position makes it even more likely he has a good hand.


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I don't know how loose he is but I assume he's quite aggressive. He also will know that there's a lot of loose play early in these, so he doesn't necessarily need AA/KK/AK.

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Why would he want to break his chances at winning a huge pot with JJ-99 by re-raising and seeing UTG push allin over the top?

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It avoids a potentially very difficult decision in pots where he flops an overpair, he thinks he has the best hand, he may get a better hand to fold later (eg TT/JJ on an A or K high flop). I don't know but aren't those all possible?

[ QUOTE ]
The advice in this thread is shockingly bad. I don't know how ZJ plays, but if he is at all sane, he has AA-QQ/AK, with heavy weight given to AA-KK.

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Note that I'm only a 1.5-1 underdog vs AA-KK, AK and I'm getting 1.27-1, so even if that is his entire range it's not THAT bad. ChipEV = 2/5*1230 + 3/5*(-955) = -81.
If he folds AK to my push, then 16 times I win 375 (145+145+45+15+10) and 12 times he calls with AA/KK. Of those 12, I win 1230 chips ~2.2 times and lose 955 chips ~9.8 times. So chipEV = 16/28*375 + 2.2/28*1230 - 9.8/28*955 = -21. This range seems like the worst case scenario to me. If you add anymore hands, the push is profitable. (That's not to say it's the best play).

Steve