Newb question How much value do you put into certain stats ?

[wall_st]

So I am betting sports with a very small bankroll. I have been doing a fair amount of reading both here and at the recommended sites. THis week I was looking at some of the NFL matchups when I began noticing this sort of language commonly being used, (the following quote is taken from donbest.com)

[ QUOTE ]
New England is 1-6 straight-up and against the spread in its last seven trips to Miami.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not particularly interested in this matchup, but more in how much weight would you put into such a statement ? Does how many times a team has covered against another really have much substance ? It seems as though sports betting is very similar to trading in the marketplace as you are always looking for inefficiences within the marketplace then placing wagers to exploit these inefficiencies. Could you then draw the conclusion that the public in the past has overvalued the patriots in matchups versus the dolphins and that this is an exploitable inflated line ? Or is such a statement just another useless statistic ?

Please someone elighten me.

[craig r]

First off, even if there was some truth to this type of "trend", this sample size is entirely too small. That alone would make me ignore this type of trend.

As far as NE being 1-6 ATS in its last 7 trips to Miami, this is most likely over the last 7 years. These teams are quite different now than they were a year ago; so it would make sense that they are even more different over the past 7 years.

Now, you could try to figure out if the public was going to use this stat as a reason to bet on/against one of the teams, but I doubt that they do.

I definitely think you are on the right path just by your thinking of this as a marketplace with inefficiencies. The public in the past may have over valued the pats, but that doesn't mean they do or do not now. If we gauge the line movement over the next week, we will be able to tell.

I know you weren't interested in this game in particular, but most of the stats are like the one you mentioned above.

craig

[Mr_J]

It's statistically insignificant, so don't put much weight on the trend itself. Instead, look at why that trend exists and then decide whether that is worthwhile to put some weight on.

[WaimanaloSlim]

I don't put much weight on against-the-spread stats. I think you actually learn more about the linesmakers than you do about the teams with this statistic. You can see whether or not they have a good read on a team. It's a small, but not totally useless, piece of information. It's always good to recognize small biases when your edges, if any, are small.

[lastsamurai]

You have to be selective when betting on games... I usually play 1-2 games a week. It's just like looking for a girlfriend...just because some chick has a nice ass...It doesnt mean she's a good catch...in the long run just looking at one trend is -ev...