illogical blind move in...thoughts?

#1 10-29-2005, 08:15 PM

10/20 live, most of the live players have left and it's now 6 handed with me and several tight players. We have been trading blinds around for about half an hour, avg stack is 2.5k, I have about 4k and have been blind raising preflop 50 - 70 on the button and in the CO every orbit to try and develop some action. Hasn't been working out too well. I blind raise 50 on the button, folded around, I don't look at my cards and the BB who hasn't looked at his cards blind reraises to 100. He is very tight preflop and by the book, hosts the game, and has a very sound understanding of the "math". Occasionally he will do some wacky things, but generally he has very good hands when the money goes in, he knows how to have a good time gambling though. Anyway, he blind raises and I now look at my cards, 97o, ok. I call. Flop comes 883r He moves all in for 2.5k.

What range of hands do you call this with if he hasn't looked at his cards?

What range of hands do you call this with if he has?

#2 10-29-2005, 11:09 PM

This sounds more like a gambling theory question rather than a NL Hold'em question.

I think it's obvious you shouldnt call with nine-seven high, though.

You're effectively getting even money on your call- so why call without a cinch?

Weird post/

edge · #3 10-30-2005, 12:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You're effectively getting even money on your call- so why call without a cinch?

[/ QUOTE ]

You should call with whatever mathematically works out to 50% of the hands. A-high should fall well into that range, and ought to be an easy call. You definitely shouldn't just fold anything other than "a cinch", because this is a great opportunity to make money if you have a better-than-average hand and you may not get this opportunity again.

If he has looked at his cards, it just becomes a big rock-paper-scissors game and I won't comment on it because it depends way too much on the particular table texture and all of that stuff that can't be conveyed in text.

#4 10-30-2005, 01:00 AM

So you call here with A2???

Why?

edge · #5 10-30-2005, 01:17 AM

I'm facing a random hand, and on that board, A2 is better than 50% of random hands (I think; I didn't check the math, but let's assume it is). Calling is +EV. Folding is 0EV. Why would I want to fold?

#6 10-30-2005, 01:26 AM

Well, the risk/reward doesnt seem great enough for a call with A2. There's 200 in the pot, and you're calling $2,500 to win that $200 because you have a hand that is better that the majority of starting hands?

I just dont see why you would want to make such a huge call in relation to the game and the pot with A-high.

I don't like gambling- and that's what this post really is, a pure gamble. I'm mucking and waiting for him to make that move when i have a real hand.

That's just too big of a call with too small of a pot for me to make with A-high.

I hate variance, too, so that would play a large part in it.

edge · #7 10-30-2005, 01:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Well, the risk/reward doesnt seem great enough for a call with A2. There's 200 in the pot, and you're calling $2,500 to win that $200 because you have a hand that is better that the majority of starting hands?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm calling $2500 to win $2700 when I will win more than 50% of the time. Again, why would I want to fold? This is the basic fundamental point in winning poker.

#8 10-30-2005, 01:39 AM

First question, how do you know BB hasn't looked at his cards? Did he tell you that?

Second question, why risk $2500 to win $200? Pride is not worth that much.

Fold and move on. Of course, to answer your question, the only hands you can "mathematically" call here with would be anything that 97o beats over 51% of the time (obviously). But do you really want to coin-flip for $2700? I think I only call here if I know my opponent has 9x, where x<7 and not a 3, or 7y, where y<9 and not an 8 or 3. But how would you know that? Afterall, 97o doesn't beat any random hand.

Wayfare · #9 10-30-2005, 02:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
First question, how do you know BB hasn't looked at his cards? Did he tell you that?

Second question, why risk $2500 to win $200? Pride is not worth that much.

Fold and move on. Of course, to answer your question, the only hands you can "mathematically" call here with would be anything that 97o beats over 51% of the time (obviously). But do you really want to coin-flip for $2700? I think I only call here if I know my opponent has 9x, where x<7 and not a 3, or 7y, where y<9 and not an 8 or 3. But how would you know that? Afterall, 97o doesn't beat any random hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

EVERYONE MUST REMEMBER, YOUR OPPONENTS BET IS IN THE POT! NOT JUST THE DEAD MONEY

/rant off.

mikech · #10 10-30-2005, 02:42 AM

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Calling is +EV. Folding is 0EV. Why would I want to fold?

[/ QUOTE ]
well, even if you have a bankroll of 20 buyins, if you always take that bet the chances of you going broke or having your bankroll devastated is pretty significant. i can easily understand why someone would fold there with a mathematically better-than-random hand.