i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,

[Pat Southern]

I think there were around 750 people to start the tournament, so 7,500,000.

There were 8 million chips in play.



sheets

[adanthar]

I had a few posts about these types of hands a while ago...gumpzilla has it right, it's a math problem. Given the AA-JJ, AK call range (this is almost as good as it gets because you don't really want KTs to call), you're gonna get called around 25% of the time at a 10 handed table and lose just under 2/3 of the showdowns. What that means is you gain (eyeballing) 1K in EV 75% and lose something over 3K 25% of the time just on that one play alone, without taking the increased size of your stack *or* anyone else calling with trash into account. I think that makes it a close fold.

BTW, if you knew you were going to be called by exactly one player with KTs, you would gain about 2-3K 2/3 of the time* and lose 11K 1/3 of the time, making a push horrible.

*Even to double up to 20K, you have to finish 30'th. This payout structure may as well be a sat.

[jon_1van]

[ QUOTE ]
There were 8 million chips in play.



sheets

[/ QUOTE ]

Makes your 6/7 k not look too hot.

[Enrique]

[ QUOTE ]
I can't speak for anyone else, but many of the "pros" I correspond with evaluate opportunities in terms of expected return. The best players return 1-2 buyins per tourney over the long run. Gaining 1.1 buyins with practically no risk is a pretty good argument for folding under the stated conditions.

[/ QUOTE ]

When you mention return 1-2 buyins, it means they get 1 or 2 buyins besides getting their money back. This case is getting 0.1 buyins not 1.1 .

Although I do think it is a fold, that argument does not work as you stated it.

[-Oz-]

[ QUOTE ]
When you mention return 1-2 buyins, it means they get 1 or 2 buyins besides getting their money back. This case is getting 0.1 buyins not 1.1 .

[/ QUOTE ]

I understood this fact when I wrote the post. Yes, the quoted 1-2 buyin return is profit, but that doesn't change my statement. I didn't offer this as an argument for folding, but as a data point to put things in perspective.

The hero still gains 1.1 buyins from folding the next few hands with virtually no risk. The -1 buyin for entering this tourney is a sunk cost and shouldn't be considered when finding the current best play.

-Oz-

[PFrese]

Here is a different line -- What about just calling preflop? I am not saying I love it, but if the table is tight, your call may induce a few other callers and everyone sees the flop cheap. If no overs, you can safely jam it. If overs, you can fold it. If a Jack hits the board, they you got yourself a doubleup.

Like I said, I don't love calling here. My first reaction was to push, but after reading all of the posts that say folding is the right play, I headed for the middle ground.

Is calling terrible?

[Toro]

Outcome?

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Outcome?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure about the hand in question, except to say:

[ QUOTE ]
Date / Time: 2005-11-15 15:37:00
Title: Chip Jett Eliminated on the Money Bubble
Log: Chip all in for the ante ($300), two other players limp, and Alex Jacob raises to $8,500 to isolate him, and everyone else folds. Jett shows pocket jacks, and Jacob shows Q-5. Was Jacob offering Jett protection? Not necessarily -- his large raise bought him the side pot immediately (worth $7,000), and he still had a chance at the $3,000 main pot.


When the flop came Q-7-5 (giving Jacob two pair), perhaps he just knew what was coming? Jett needed to catch a jack to stay alive, but the last two cards were 3-4. Chip Jett is eliminated on the money bubble.


[/ QUOTE ]

[Rduke55]

[ QUOTE ]
I knock out all the zeros and still fold. It is all about making the most +EV decision. And here it is a fold. Stop looking at the top payouts, you are not getting there anyway. Double up here and you still have a microstack. If doubling up here put me back in the middle of the field it would be an entirely different matter. But doubling up here really doesn't improve my situation all that much.

Look at sirios latest post.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this reasoning.