Live Hand: Pop it now or later?

[davet]

Given the loose action, mucking on the flop doesn't seem like a very good idea. Remember that the odds of a player flopping a flush are 1 in 117, I will gladly be wrong once in order to be right 116 times.

But lo and behold, their aren't too many cards that can come on the turn that will make me happy. I would be inclined to wait until the turn to attemp a raise, but also be mindful that nobody is going to let go of any spade, so it would probably be a good idea to dump if a spade hits, but that depends on the good ole' confidence meter. I probably would not attempt a value bet in the end, but then again, that totally depends.

Preflop is nice, I would maybe like one more caller but with a passive table, all good.

Perfect hand to call then raise the turn to kingdom come on a non-scare card, you got position on a co-ordinated board with a UTG+1 wannabe and a bizarro player.

If a scare card does hit you will most likely have odds to call the turn to hit your boat.

[Roadstar]

Ok here is what happened. First I'll go through my thought process. Tell me whether you agree or disagree and why (thats more important than the results):

1) I recognized that there aren't that many safe cards on the turn that I could pop in a raise.

2) Having said that I also thought I was ahead on the flop, although my edge may not be that high with the monotone board and the action before me.

3) A 3 bet could potentially buy me a free card on the turn even if a spade falls - i.e. I anticipate one of the donks to suffer from fancy play syndrome and go for a check raise on a spade turn.


Based on the 3 reasons, I 3 bet, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn was a 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

UTG+1 checks, I bet, UTG+1 folds.

Comments?