Make a "Hellmuthian" Laydown?

MeanGreenTT · #1 08-12-2005, 04:19 PM

$45 B&M (Dog Track Card Room) 120 person MTT. Blinds start at 10/15, increasing every 20 minutes, T700 to start, final table paid.

I've been moved to the table 3 hands prior to the 1st 5 minute break, which happens after completion of the 2nd level. I know 2 players at the table and villian is known by both of them but unknown to me. I play in this tourney at least weekly and know many players. I've seen this guy around and he has a "silver coin" in front of him, indicating a 2nd place win in one of these tournies, like that means much [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

We play 3 hands after getting back from break then...

No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (10 handed)

MP1 (t1800.00)
MP2 (t880.00)
MP3 (t1565.00)
CO (t940.00)
Button (t780.00)
SB (t1032.00)
Hero (t1100.00)
UTG (t410.00)
UTG+1 (t1400.00)
UTG+2 (t1000.00)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of t25. BB posts a blind of t50.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t200, 1 fold, MP1 raises to t500, 5 folds Hero???

Only 2 options here, in my mind, and hell, there really may be only 1...[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

option 1
My gut SCREAMS poooooosh here! (maybe the noob in me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ) I have Kings for GOD's SAKE! There's only 1 starting hand out there that beats me and I can't fear monsters under the bed, right? I never liked the idea of flat-calling and pushing on a non-scary board but the bet and raise most likely will've thinned the field, so I'm probably already 3-way, if not heads-up if I do flat-call. I have position here and calling would peel off another 450 off my T1050 stack.

Option 2
I can't BELIEVE I'd even consider folding but...there's a standard raise (4xbb) from an EP player, then a raise to T500 by MP1. I haven't looked at my cards yet, no idea what I have so I'm watching MP1 as he makes his bet. Deliberate, steady...etc. but still an unknown player to me. I think I'd have to have a DEAD-ON read on this guy to lay this down but his range has to be pretty damn tight, right?

I know I shouldn't put myself in his shoes but he's at least a "decent" player and as such I have to think about the hands I'd raise with were I in his position. With 6 players left to act and an EP player showing strength, I'd have to severly limit his range to JJ-AA (JJ seems slim to me) and AK, maybe toss in a few others but it's not like he's deep stacked and can mess around with "marginal" hands in this position. But still.....I have KINGS!!!

OK, so enough of my rambling, I'd really like some thoughts here and hope I haven't posted yet another "non-interesting" hand that gets little to no attention, thanks [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

SossMan · #2 08-12-2005, 04:26 PM

it's not even close w/ QQ. I would probably push w/ JJ there, too. With KK, it's just silly.

MeanGreenTT · #3 08-12-2005, 04:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
it's not even close w/ QQ. I would probably push w/ JJ there, too. With KK, it's just silly.

[/ QUOTE ]

Guess I can pretty much toss out the idea of reaching the goal of my last sentence then huh....LMFAO [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Thanks [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

ZBTHorton · #4 08-12-2005, 05:00 PM

Push....and it's so not even close it's funny.

fnurt · #5 08-12-2005, 05:01 PM

Folding here would be flat-out crazy. In a typical online tourney I wouldn't be the least bit shocked to see ATo and 55 here.

Bill Kolter · #6 08-12-2005, 05:43 PM

You seem to want some concrete rationale. Let's see what the math tells us.

First, you're a big favorite to win. If you're against aces, you're a 4-1 dog. The chances of being up against aces (6 possible hands), vs. all other possible raising hands (let's say pairs over 10s, A-10 or higher) is 88-6, or 15-1. You're a 70-30 favorite over the A-X hands, an 80-20 favorite over smaller pairs, and an 80-20 dog vs. aces.

So: effective winning percentage is:

80% against 20% of the possible hands (pairs) (.8X.2=.14)
70% against 73% of the possible hands (A-X) (.7X.73=.51)
20% against 7% of the possible hands (aces) (.2X.07=.014)

So, your winning percentage pre-flop is 66.4% against this range. That's 1.9 to 1...in FAVOR!

Even if you want to boil this down to a math problem, you ARE playing this hand!!!!

I think it's impossible for a call to be mathematically an error.

adanthar · #7 08-12-2005, 09:38 PM

Well, it's Hellmuthian, all right...

locutus2002 · #8 08-12-2005, 10:05 PM

I can't bring myself to fold KK.

His raise is concerning because it offers UTG+1 3:1 to call.
I'd be concerned that a skilled player is unlikely to raise this little with QQ/JJ or even AK to an EP 4XBB opener.

Without a strong read (live) and knowledge of the player, I don't think you can pretend to be Hellmuth here, but I would be concerned as I moved my chips in.

Hendricks433 · #9 08-12-2005, 10:09 PM

I cant fold Kings here. Im real concerned pushing but I think calling is horrible. Calling off like half your stack pf to a reraise [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] . Push.

People_Mover · #10 08-12-2005, 10:38 PM

It's the Tampa Dog Track or the Horse Track? I push without hesitation. Those guys are such bad players.