2nd nuts vs. decent player

Villain here is a decent player. I suck. Anybody call here, I don't [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

PokerStars Game #299046519: Omaha Pot Limit ($0.25/$0.50) -
Seat 1: xo*Kisses*xo ($105.95 in chips)
Seat 2: aggie14333 ($48 in chips)
Seat 3: CESpidey ($153.05 in chips)
Seat 4: SteveL91 ($58.65 in chips)
Seat 5: fish1 ($30.95 in chips)
Seat 6: Vagabond ($49.25 in chips)
Seat 7: Spellmen ($46.85 in chips)
Seat 8: asdf__asdf ($47 in chips)
Seat 9: KKush ($51.10 in chips)
asdf__asdf: posts small blind $0.25
KKush: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to xo*Kisses*xo [9h 8c Kc Jd]
xo*Kisses*xo: calls $0.50
aggie14333: folds
CESpidey: calls $0.50
SteveL91: folds
fish1: folds
Vagabond: calls $0.50
Spellmen: folds
asdf__asdf: calls $0.25
KKush: checks
*** FLOP *** [Tc 9c 4d]
asdf__asdf: checks
KKush: bets $2.40
xo*Kisses*xo: calls $2.40
CESpidey: calls $2.40
Vagabond: calls $2.40
asdf__asdf: folds
*** TURN *** [Tc 9c 4d] [5c]
KKush: bets $11.50
xo*Kisses*xo...

IMHO, 2nd flush is the most difficult hand to play in PLO. If it's good you need to protect it against sets, and if it's not you need to minimize your losses. Mathematically, it's about as good as an average boat, but the value of a suited Ace is so obvious preflop that there's an increased chance that it's out there.

On a full table, the nut flush will be out there 1 time in 3, and at this level most people will be willing to limp into any pot with any suited ace so the threat is very real. Furthermore, there are 2 other people who have stayed in this pot on a flush draw board so there's a very good chance that one of them has it even if KKush doesn't. In my limited experience, 2nd flush is a much better hand when you're doing the betting and everyone else is passive (at these levels anyway). They don't stand up well when a non-crazy is potting. KKush is definitely not a crazy either.

KKush could very well have had a flush and str8 draw and is testing the field to see if his Q flush is good. The problem is that he could very well have had a hand like AQJx with the nut flush draw. Usually though, players will check-raise OOP with this hand in the hopes that 2nd nut flush will bet at it. But by no means will they always do it. Has he been pushing with the nuts OOP?

My personnal feeling, based on the few hands that I've played against him, is that he probably has the nut flush here. But that's a player specific read.

Overall, I'm convinced that there is no such thing as optimal 2nd flush play because the odds that you are well ahead or well behind are so high. It's an extremely high variance hand, and I believe that leaves you with no choice but to play the specific player. And that is a fold here I think (esp with opposition left to act after you since a call gives a set pot odds to call as well).

Am i rambling?

[TheRempel]

Unless you know that the villain will pot the nut flush draw, and then pot it again when he hits his draw, you have to push here. You should have pushed the flop.

with only 6 outs to the nuts and 4 or 5 players to act behind me i thought raising the flop was awful.

edit, i didnt think he would lead with the NFD on the flop into 5 or 6 people. Then when he potted the turn I was 95% sure he had it.

[ QUOTE ]
Has he been pushing with the nuts OOP?

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno, I had only been at 2 tables with him for around 10 minutes or so, this was finishing my first full orbit at this table. I just remember having a mental note that he's not a total donk.

[ QUOTE ]
Am i rambling?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well yes, but at least it was with useful information. Thanks for the post mr. acorn.

[TheRempel]

Here's a little PLO tip: when you're raising, they don't have to be nut outs.

IMO getting all in on this flop is chip spewing, feel free to tell me why it isn't considering the bet before me and players to act behind me.

[joewatch]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's a little PLO tip: when you're raising, they don't have to be nut outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with Remp on this one. You should be raising the flop here, or folding. Once you flat call, you are giving good odds to a ton of players behind you who could have good wraps or the nut flush draw. If you get it all-in on the flop, you are only a 45% dog to a set. And you may very well get middle or bottom set to fold.

but then again i get called by top/middle set and also the NFD so if I get called I am behind no matter what and not a favorite.

edit in a worse case scenerio i get called by a set and the nfd which might also have a straight draw.

[TheRempel]

Calling here with 6 'nut outs' is spewage. You're inviting people to call behind with far weaker hands. In this situation you would like hands that have a chance of splitting the pot with you to fold.

If the other player would fold bottom or middle set even 10% of the time, you have a +ev situation. You are also giving a bare nut flush draw incorrect odds to call by raising. If you have trouble with this you should probably not play any sort of k-suited hand.