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  #31  
Old 12-01-2005, 03:25 PM
jedi jedi is offline
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Default Re: Advice on AQ

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry I forgot to mention that I had absolutely no read on this player. It was his first or second orbit in the games and I had never played with him before so I had really nothing to go on. Also, I noticed that pretty much everyone said to call here, which kind of surprised me. When I was thinking over whether to call or not, I focused mainly on two things:
First and foremost, what hand is he three betting with pre-flop that i beat with AQ. If I don't even consider that fact that he just check-raised the river on me, My range of hands is AA-JJ, and AK. Even if I throw in the small likelyhood that he is three-betting a smaller pair or something like AJs or ATs, I'm most likely looking at two hands I beat; KK and QQ.
Second, what types of hands is he most likely to be taking this weird line with. Until the river, my best guess is KK or QQ. When he check-raises the river, i definetly lean toward AK, AA, and JJ, with a smaller chance of AQ or AJ (maybe giving him too much credit, but I don't see him three betting these preflop with so many players). I beat none of these hands.
From my experiences with small stakes, a lot of players will slowplay monster hands, and the line that he took, in hindsight, seems to be the most profitable way to play his hand if he hand a monster (ie. AA or JJ).
The more and more I analyze this hand, the more I think that a call on the river only has value in the fact that I get to see what hand he played this way. Does anyone else agree that a fold is best here?

[/ QUOTE ]


NO! There is one thing you're forgetting here. The size of the pot. The pot is HUGE! You MUST call here, even if you think you've lost (which I think is true). The times where you win will make up for the many more times you lose. Besides, you have no reads on this guy. If he's Rocky McRock, then that's one thing (in which case you might have been better off playing the hand differently), but he's Uncle Unknown and could be playing any 2 cards for all you know.

Look at it this way, there's $112 in the pot, minus the rake. Let's say that it's a $4 rake, so $108 in the pot. You have to call an $8 raise. Do you really think that your hand is good less than 7% of the time?

Grit your teeth, put your chips in the middle, and say nice hand when he shows you a winner.
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  #32  
Old 12-01-2005, 04:31 PM
jskills jskills is offline
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Default Re: Advice on AQ

Call for one more.
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  #33  
Old 12-01-2005, 04:34 PM
avisco01 avisco01 is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: NJ
Posts: 112
Default Re: Advice on AQ

Not even a question, clear call on the river. Also from Mr Harrington's book (which incidentally has nothing to do with low-limit hold 'em), "beware of the great overthink." In this spot, you're getting enormous odds with top pair, second best kicker. You lose to a bigger ace, a slowplayed set, or any hand containing a 6. What are the odds of these hands taking into account the action? If anything, BB would have figured the A of hearts on the turn HELPED you, why would he slow down in that spot? Beware of putting unknowns on big hands. I once raised with QQ from EP when I first started playing, and someone reraised from LP, I incorrectly and stupidly put him on a big hand, as if he could see my cards and decided to reraise. He wound up having 33 when all was said and done! Well, again, doesn't matter, the pot is ginormous, call expecting to lose (I suppose), but jeez, don't fold this huge pot for one bet. If there is ANY doubt, which there clearly is, you MUST call. Nothing wrong with value betting the river either, don't stop doing that in these types of spots. If you do, you leave a lot of bets on the table. Forget all of the weak tight advice you've gotten, you played the hand fine, if he shows you quad 6's or some other insane hand, just muck your cards and say "nice hand" (if you want to that is), and move on to the next hand with better knowledge about how your opponents are playing, but forget about the results of losing a big pot. On a side note, if for no other reason, suppose you decide that he just MUST have you beat, and you muck, and he shows you something like AT after you fold. Think of the negative effect that will cause to your play, knowing that you let a ridiculously large pot go when you had it won! Again, you played this fine, if you lost to a monster, so be it.
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