Interesting satellite bubble hand

[psyduck]

(Not my hand, xposted from another thread)


Situation:

The top 9 players out of 94 win a seat into the WA state championship. Everyone starts with a new chip stack in the championship round, so all that matters in the qualifier is finishing in one of those top 9 spots.

We’re down to the final table of 10 players. Only one more player has to bust out. The blinds are 400-800. I am the short stack with 4300, and I’m on the big blind for 800. There are two other short stacks; one is at 4500 and one is at 5100.

It’s folded to UTG + 2 who does a min raise to 1600. Folded around to me and I look at AdJh. If I fold I have 3500 left and will be in the small blind next hand for 400. If I go all in, the raiser will have to call 2700 more. If he folds, I will have 4300 + 400 + 1600 = 6300. If he calls and I win, I’ll have 4300 + 4300 + 400 = 9000. After his 1600 raise he had about 7000 in chips left.

Do I fold? Push? Do a stop-and-go?



What about if it was a short stack that had done the minraise?


Satellite situations are very interesting. Here on the very bubble, should I be doing any raising at ALL, since the payout argues for a very survivalist attitude? I'd love to hear satellite experts chime in.