The Limp Reraise - An Analysis

[MN_Mime]

Interesting. I find myself doing this to isolate a player with poor raising standards if I'm in early position and have a middle pocket pair. Not sure that it's +EV; just a tendency

[Jake (The Snake)]

I have no idea how to write pokertracker scripts so no, these are just random instances of the LRR and I have no way of further breaking them down, sorry.

[Jake (The Snake)]

This is, of course, a good point.

However, I see posts all the time when we have no read on villain and give him way too much credit when he limp reraises.

[chief444]

Jake,

Nice post. I did go through my database to check the same thing previously and found similar results more or less. I didn't bother guessing at a percentage but did figure that over half of the time it's crap. If it's a passive opponent then I get a bit concerned. Otherwise, I just assume there's a slightly better chance than average that his cards are soooooted!

Chief

[bobbyi]

It's interesting, but you shouldn't blindly use this statistic and instead should base your assessment of what someone is likely to have on how the action went. A lrr from UTG is often a strong hand. If someone limps on the button behind three limpers and then reraise after BB raises, that is 100% gamble gamble.

[XlgJoe]

[ QUOTE ]


So I went through my database of 2/4 hands since that's the limit many of us play and wrote down the first 200 LRR that WENT TO SHOWDOWN. This is a critical point as weaker hands (like suited connectors) will be folding some percent of the time while the big hands will usually not.



[/ QUOTE ]

Many of the strong hands will also not go to showdown, as the other players in hand will be folding. If you do have a hand like AA or KK it will be hard for them to flop something that can compete.

So I think that multiplying the non-premium hands by 2 is a mistake.

[speirs]

Great stuff. Thanks for the work you put in. There are some differences in these stats with what I thought the avarage joe would LRR with.

[mdob]

Awesome! Thanks Jake.

Instead of saying premium hands are twice as likely to go to showdown, maybe we can use the data from all the hands.

That is, look at all your hands and say 1% of all hands at showdown are AA, 1.5% are AKo, etc. (percentages obviously made up). Since AA accounts for about 0.5% of all hole cards dealt, we can then say it is shown down twice as often on average (1%/0.5%). Then, when we look at your LRR statistics, we normalize them by that factor; 29 instances of AA becomes 29/2 = 14.5 instances.

This, too, has some problems of course. People who like to LRR 32o probably like to show it down more often than the rest of us. A LRR may be interpreted as strength or weakness making people less or more likely to call down. Pot sizes change.... All that being said, I think this would be an improvement on some fantastic and very interesting work.

I'd do the above myself, but I don't have the database for it.

[Ed Miller]

To clarify, I think a DEEP limp-reraise (someone who limps after other limpers and then LRR's) is usually trash. An OPEN limp-reraise is more likely to be a premium, though still not, by any means, always.

[Jake (The Snake)]

Well, my own WTSD numbers are...

"Premium": 50%
"Non-Preium": 23%

Now I'm not an average player I hope but I think this should give a rough indication that multiplying by 2 isn't a big mistake.

One other factor to consider is that since there was a LRR, the pot is going to be really big. So both hand sets will see a showdown more often than usual. I suspect premium hands will see a bigger increase proportionally, but who knows.