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#1
11-07-2005, 04:59 PM
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Counterfitted??
Party 2/4
I get 82o in the BB. Three limpers and I check. 4 to the flop for 4.5SB's The flop comes A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] I bet. Two limpers call. The last one folds. Three to the turn for 3.5BB's The turn is 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] I bet and the limper to my right calls. The last one folds. Two to the river for 5.5SB's The river is 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] What's my play here? I'm not confident villian will bet a busted draw if I check but I'm sure he won't bluff raise me if I bet. I think I f-ed this one up... 
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#3
11-07-2005, 05:32 PM
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Re: Counterfitted??
I think you can bet/fold here. Most unknowns will raise somewhere with an A. You can get value from pocket pairs, a few hands holding 2's and may split with hands holding 8. I think check/fold is bad, because of the flush draw. Check/call is bad because it a worse hand that would call a bet will often check it through. I like Bet/Fold.
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#4
11-07-2005, 05:47 PM
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Re: Counterfitted??
I like a bet/fold here
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#5
11-07-2005, 06:02 PM
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Re: Counterfitted??
check/call against an aggressive.
bet/fold against a passive.
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#6
11-07-2005, 06:13 PM
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Re: Counterfitted??
I think the decision is close.
If you bet, are you getting called by any worse hands, besides 77 and 55-33? It seems unlikely. (I suppose Villain could have K2s, though.) So, unless you're up against one of those pocket pairs, Villain probably has a worse hand he won't call with, an 8 that you're chopping with, or a hand that beats yours. Betting gives him one last chance to fold his 8, I guess, but if that's what he's got, he does kind of seem committed to showing down. On the other hand, if you check, there is some (small) chance he'll just take a free showdown with a weak ace.
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#7
11-07-2005, 06:21 PM
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Re: Counterfitted??
Since this seems pretty read based here are more thoughts on villian...
This guy was pretty aggro pf (30/10/2ish I think) and certainly would have raised a premium holding like a PP over 88 or AQ+. My table image was very solid and I had been aggressively betting solid hands and draws for an hour with him at the table. He's sitting to my left and probably paying attention and must put me on at least an A or flush draw. I don't think this guy is calling my flop and turn bets with just a 2 in his hand or a pair I beat. He either has a weak A, a flush draw or a monster. I think he bets the weak A if I check to him 75% of the time. I'm not sure how much he bets a busted flush draw here if checked to...
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#8
11-07-2005, 06:31 PM
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Re: Counterfitted??
[ QUOTE ]
Since this seems pretty read based here are more thoughts on villian... This guy was pretty aggro pf (30/10/2ish I think) and certainly would have raised a premium holding like a PP over 88 or AQ+. My table image was very solid and I had been aggressively betting solid hands and draws for an hour with him at the table. He's sitting to my left and probably paying attention and must put me on at least an A or flush draw. I don't think this guy is calling my flop and turn bets with just a 2 in his hand or a pair I beat. He either has a weak A, a flush draw or a monster. I think he bets the weak A if I check to him 75% of the time. I'm not sure how much he bets a busted flush draw here if checked to... [/ QUOTE ] I think you should check-call. If your read is correct, all you can beat is a bluff. So you might as well give him a chance to make one.
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#9
11-07-2005, 10:01 PM
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Re: Counterfitted??
puke, check, call
For reasons others have stated, you are good enough to warrant calling and it's more likely he'll bluff a worse hand than call with one.
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#10
11-08-2005, 12:51 AM
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Re: Counterfitted??
Bet/Fold. Unless your opponent is regularly aggressive on the river. Aggressive players check/call.
A check/call line is too passive against typical neutral/passive players because you will get checked through too often and you will be missing bets with the best hand. Typical holdings on the river are: 1) busted flush draw. 2) middle pair that can both beat us and lose to us (99 and 55 asre examples) 3) a hand that ties us (anyone holding an 8) 4) Ax. Typically, someone holding a lone Ace now has to worry about his kicker, and more than likely just call you down. You're realistically only going to be raised by hands containing a 6. Also you can get hands that have you beat or that you tie to lay down to a bet. Question for SS gurus: When does a check-raise on the river against a aggressive player become standard?
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