Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > General Gambling > Probability

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 12-30-2005, 01:22 AM
mw999 mw999 is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 3
Default figuring odds when both parties can improve

Here goes. I have AKo, famous player has Ad,Jd, flop is A,d,d,. don't remember exactly what the two diamonds were but flop did not threaten a straight. I have looked up the poker calculator odds and it looks like I was about 54/53% to 47% favorite. This does not seem accurate to me. He has 12 outs to make his flush or another jack. In the event he catches a jack I can still come back if I catch a non diamond K. most of the runs I have seen only seem to count his outs and do not counter my possibilities of drawing a K, I basically have two outs in the event another J hits the board. Do the poker calculators figure full house, straights, quads etc?. It seems like my two good Ks (about 8% chance) should be subtracted from famous players 35% (flush) and 12% (extra jack). Bottom line, seems like this hand should be stronger than 53% favorite. btw, my hand held up. We both got all in after the flop, later looked it up, suprised I was not a bigger favorite. mw999
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 12-30-2005, 01:35 AM
timex timex is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 4
Default Re: figuring odds when both parties can improve

So there are 45 cards left in the deck, you will not hit a diamond (36/45) * ( 35/44) times =0.636, so he will win 36.4% of the time with the flush. Of the remaining times, he will hit a jack 1- (42/45) * (41/44) = 13.0%, of the times he hits a jack, you will hit a king (3/44) times, so he wins 13.0% * 41/44 + 36.4% = 48.5%, less the times when you hit the full house should make it about 47%
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 12-30-2005, 01:51 AM
mw999 mw999 is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 3
Default Re: figuring odds when both parties can improve

What about the two good kings? re:8% for me? isn't that deducted from his 13% chance to hit a jack? giving him about 36% plus 5% or 41% chance.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 12-30-2005, 01:55 AM
mw999 mw999 is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 3
Default Re: figuring odds when both parties can improve

oops, meant to write that I have 2/44 for the two good kings, or about 4.5%, to be deducted from his 13%,
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 12-30-2005, 02:20 AM
ohnonotthat ohnonotthat is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: New Jersey - near A.C.
Posts: 511
Default Re: figuring odds when both parties can improve

www.twodimes.net

If you're asking how to figure it out for yourself . . .

PM me on Monday if you still haven't discovered/been told the correct method.

I am a proud member of the "TFTA" (Two Fingered Typists of America) and the explanation for the shortcut is lengthy but I will do it if nobody else steps to the plate.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 12-30-2005, 12:39 PM
AaronBrown AaronBrown is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: New York
Posts: 505
Default Re: figuring odds when both parties can improve

The good poker calculators figure everything. Here is a quick approximation, similar to ohnonotthat and timex's accounts.

AK beats AJ with Axx on the board 85% of the time, ignoring flushes. So 36% of the time he gets a flush and wins almost all of them. The other 64% of the time, he wins 15% by getting more Jacks than you get Kings. 15%*64% = 9.6%; so that's about 36%+10% = 46% to him. He actually has about 48% due to straights and other possibilities.

I think what's misleading you is thinking you're a huge favorite if he doesn't get the flush, and the odds are almost 2:1 against him getting the flush. Both of those things are true, but they still add up to an almost even hand. Also, he had a good flop, you were about 70% before the flop.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:13 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions Inc.