Very Familiar

[neuroman]

How many outs is a runner-runner flush worth on the flop? Would it be approximately one quarter of the available clubs left, e.g., between 2 and 2.5 outs? I should know this, but I don't.

[crunchy1]

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I think a conservative estimate would've been around 50% of the time.

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WAY too low crunchy. I've played a few hands in these 2/4 games, and my 3 bets on the flop give me free cards extremely often. 85% is conservative.

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meh - I'm no stranger to the Party 2/4 either and I don't agree. 85% may be close - it's not, IMO, conservative.

I just don't think you give can yourself that high of a percentage against unknown opponents. Maybe if you had some decent reads on 1 or two of the players - but not readless against the field. There are plenty of 2/4 players who will cap this for fun from the SB/BB. There's also plenty of 2/4 players who will donk the turn if they hit any pair (some with a small PP).

Getting a free (cheap) turn card is great but, it's not the only thing that needs to go right in the rest of the hand. I just don't see how we can justify continuing given our lack of knowledge on our opponents coupled with our relatively weak holding.

[crunchy1]

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How many outs is a runner-runner flush worth on the flop? Would it be approximately one quarter of the available clubs left, e.g., between 2 and 2.5 outs? I should know this, but I don't.

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Count between 1-1.5 outs for a runner-runner straight/flush draw.

[damaniac]

His point wasn't that our bet would be earning us money (ie raising a flush draw on a multiway flop), but that we have enough of a chance to win when factoring in the current pot size (and what it will be when called and on future streets) that folding is wrong. It looks right too, which seems odd, but...well I guess it depends how often our A is good. Interesting stuff.

[SippinSoma]

This is far from forum clutter.

[27offsooot]

FOLD. FOLD. FOLD. FOLD.
I know what hand u're referring to and i think i saw this before on the forums (as well as in SSH). The other pot is bigger in the example.

[Weebl]

Does anyone like raising preflop in LP here? With Axs we are likley to flop a weak draw and would benefit from getting to the turn for 2 SB. Not to mention fold equity for A or K high flops.

[QTip]

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FOLD. FOLD. FOLD. FOLD.
I know what hand u're referring to and i think i saw this before on the forums (as well as in SSH). The other pot is bigger in the example.

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Board: Ks 5d 3c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 29.1251 % 29.13% 00.00% { Ac4c }
Hand 2: 49.0587 % 49.06% 00.00% { KdJh }
Hand 3: 21.8162 % 21.82% 00.00% { 6s5s }

I mean, I don't know what they have, my situation could be better than this or worse. If they both have Kings, my equity is in the mid 30s, if someone has like 2 pair or worse, I could be in the low 20s. At any rate, the pot is 9 sbs to me with maybe 30% equity without considering implied odds, I'm sacrificing 3 sb folding here. It's 2 to call and only 3 to raise a very good (despite Crunchy's statement [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]) chance to get a free card.

I'm still listening though 27offsoot, cuz you normally show me something worthwhile.

[crunchy1]

[img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] - right back at ya!! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Seriously though - your last post is very misleading.

#1 - you know better than to give specific hands to each player in that type of analysis. Toss some ranges out there and see what happens. I think things might actually start looking better for you! [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

#2 - make sure you account for the two players left to act after you. These players are still in the pot and need to be accounted for.

[QTip]

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- right back at ya!! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Seriously though - your last post is very misleading.

#1 - you know better than to give specific hands to each player in that type of analysis. Toss some ranges out there and see what happens. I think things might actually start looking better for you! [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

#2 - make sure you account for the two players left to act after you. These players are still in the pot and need to be accounted for.

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All true.

I don't have the time to run some sims right now, but I can later. Yes, I agree my equity will probably improve. I think the point being though that I almost certainly have AT LEAST equity in the low 20s and probably much better. And, as has been shown, this is plenty to make at least a call. I like to raise. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]