$20/$40 high: routine fold

You have to make a reasonable read given no other information. If you have seen the player show (44)7 after such a play, then you must call more. Given the lack of knowledge, I am going to assume a sane person. Is he re-raising to knock out the only other player in the hand with a three flush? I strongly doubt it, and I am going to pretty much eliminate it from my read of this hand. The split 7's with the high kicker occurred to me, but I didn't add them to muddy the waters too much---but---here we go...

If a player is willing to take a stand early with (7K)7 or (A7)7, I usually find that they will lead with it, raising it, hoping that another high pair will thin the field, or just take down the antes right away. He might have limped in, then saw a chance to play the 7's with a high kick heads up, and raised. After the K hits him on 4th street, there are:
A)1 combination of (QQ)7K
B)1 combination of (JJ)7K
C)3 comb. (KK)7K
D)3 comb. (AA)7K
E)3 comb. of (77)7K
F)9 comb. of (7K)7K
G)9 comb. of (7A)7K
If (F.) you are a 75-25 dog
If (G.) you are a 60-40 fav

In pure mathmatics in these 29 chances, you are favored, slightly, 10 times, 34% of the time.

You are almost even money against (QQ)7, 3.5%

You are a significant dog the other 18 times:
19-1 vs. KKK
8-1 vs. 777
2-1 vs.AA
3-1 vs. KK77

Given that the way this hand was played, I think the hands you are most likely up against, in order, are---
(77)7K and (AA)7K

then the next level of possiblities are---
(KK)7K, (7A)7K and (7K)7K

In all but one of these you are a big dog, and favored slight over the (7A)7K

There are two things here---the pure mathmatics or odds of holding a particular hand, and given that they held that hand, the likelyhood they would have played it the way they did.

I therefor think that even though the combinations of rolled 7's and pocket aces are less than the split 7's with kicker, I think that they are most likely.

Add to the fact you are so much of a dog when behind, I stand by my earlier statement---Fold on fourth.

(If later you reply that he showed his cards and they were (5H 3H) 7H Kc As I will hunt you down like a dirty dog [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

[Bartholow]

Nope, he didn't show his hand.

You might be right about folding 4th, even though I think you are underestimating the odds that he is messing around.

[grb137]

unless this guy has shown a lot of aggression in previous hands, he is screaming huge PP by his play on 3rd. I would call 3rd and look for another J or another A on 4th - everything should be considered is a brick and an easy fold.

-grb

Also, given that this is the 20/40 game, and people should be paying attention, if you fold fourth then it looks pretty weak tight. In a game where some players will muck around, it gives a message that all you need to take the pot is to reraise and then catch a moderately scary card on fourth. I think, if you include some big three flushes, which are legitimate hands to try and get heads up with, then a call is correct, and then re-evaluate on fifth.

[Bartholow]

We're pretty much on the same page, except if you fold 4th most players will just think you didn't have much when you raised 3rd.

So they are more likely to call you when you have a hand and you can look to get paid.

[Bartholow]

I wouldn't characterize getting called more as particularly a good thing in stud, though it is pretty close with low antes like these (it is possible to play in these games in such a way that you do want to get called, but I don't and I still don't think it is the most profitable way either). Mason wrote an essay about that, probably someone with a better memory can tell you where it is. One of the Poker Essays books I think but could be somewhere else.

[Roland]

[ QUOTE ]
One of the Poker Essays books I think

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, should be one of the essays about image.

[CarlosChadha]

[ QUOTE ]
unless this guy has shown a lot of aggression in previous hands, he is screaming huge PP by his play on 3rd. I would call 3rd and look for another J or another A on 4th - everything should be considered is a brick and an easy fold.

-grb

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is your 4th st. plan, then you should be folding on 3rd because you don't have nearly the correct number of outsw to hit an A or J on 4th. Unless I knew this guy to be a rock (and rocks don't limp reraise with much else besides wired As or rolled 7s) I'd definitely plan on seeing this hand until 5th st. The only way I fold 4th is if he hits an A, pairs his door card or perhaps catches a J and I catch a rag.

-Carlos

[BeerMoney]

Were you the guy I owned on Pacific today?