Wait for the turn for more equity or not?

[oreogod]

Just came across this...you either need to lead out or check/raise the flop. Then lead the turn.

The way you played it u definitly need to lead the turn. As for the flop...to check-raise this you really need to hope for a mid-late position bet...other wise you are just going to build a big pot if a bet comes from your left.

So either way, this flop is a lead out or CR. I like leading a lot of flops...but I think chancing a CR here is probably worth it. You are just going to have to hope that a late position player decides to take a stab.

[mockingbird]

I agree with c/r the flop to protect your hand. You may get players w/ Ax or Kx ( if A and K are not spades ) to fold, probobly giving you more outs. Also could get a gutshot to fold.

If 2/3rds of deck are good cards on the turn, why not raise now to protect this hand.

I think folding the flop would almost be better than calling in this case.

If the turn is not a spade and you c/r the flop and lead the turn, you will get raised by a made flush. You can fold and you lost 2 BB.

If you dont raise the flop you may let players draw to about 7 more outs that can beat you.

I would fold to a turn raise in any case.

[guppie]

It's been a while since I took probability but I believe the odds of a single player having a flush AFTER we know a monotone flop has dropped are calculated thus:

10 cards of that suit remain unseen. 47 cards remain unseen in total. Odds of player having 1 spade is 10/47 and of having second spade 9/46. Odds of having 2 spades is 10/47 * 9/46 or 1/24. This is almost 5 times higher probability than 1/119.

Did I remember my HS math correctly?

is it really necessary to take equity into account here? Raising to protect your hand is good enough reason alone isn't it?

[Goat_boy]

sorry if this is old news, but i was thinking....

to get a better estimate for the 3.8% figure maybe could use SSHE ("tight" in my calculations).

i started off finding the total number of hands called with in each position and the number which contain 2 spades.
can you not then remove those combinations which contain the cards in the flop? this means that the J and 9 on the flop seriously reduce the possibility that someone has a flush(as many suited limping hands contain these).
Still, of the 61 hands not containing a J of spades limped in early (? over calcs) only 4 are "spades" and dont contain the J....giving 6.6% chance.

Thinking about it now, i should have at least used the loose guidelines. I'm sleep deprived so maybe i'm talking garbage, but i bet

1) it is possible to work out a better estimate
2) it's considerably higher than 3.8%
3) the true figure is affected by (a) the cards on
deck(J,9,etc)
(b) positions of limpers with sb being
"bad" and bb being "good"

this seems intuitively correct, because most players are more inclined to play suited hands.

Anyway, i'm no good with arithmetic and maybe a better starting hand guide should be used, as not everyone's that tight (though, maybe most peeps' ratios of suited starting hands to total starting hands is roughly the same).

BTW 1-(1-0.066)^5= 0.29
but i make it 6.2% for middle position.

Waste of time?


criticism welcomed

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
Raising to protect your hand is good enough reason alone isn't it?


[/ QUOTE ]
Yes. With 5 players in this hand, hero probably has only a very little equity edge (if any). However, there are a ton of potential outs that hero can buy to increase his equity - any A,K,Q, anyone with a middle spade, and gutshots.

A raise faces two opponents with 2 bets. Hero can't risk trying for a c/r on the turn so he needs to be raising the flop.

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
Odds of having 2 spades is 10/47 * 9/46 or 1/24. This is almost 5 times higher probability than 1/119.

Did I remember my HS math correctly?


[/ QUOTE ]
You've figured it the way I would as well - "Given that there's a monotone flop, what's the odds of someone holding 2 spades?" I didn't double check your math, but it looks like it's about right. But you've only done the math for one person, and there are 6 opponents in the hand. Again, I'm too lazy to do the actual math right now, but I'd guess the overall chance of someone holding 2 spades in this situation is almost 20%.

Also, if I were working the odds for an individual hand, I would increase the odds of 2 spades slightly to account for the fact that players are more likely to throw away unsuited cards than suited cards. In this particular case, I think you can pretty much ignore that factor though, since with 7 of 10 people seeing the flop you can roughly figure that you have 7 random hands.