Losing value or prudence??

ajmargarine · #1 12-18-2005, 11:17 PM

Villian's about 75/25. Limps alot of junk. Presses the autobet pot button preflop sometimes before action gets to him, which is what he did here. The only time he had to show in one of these situations, he showed A7o from a similar MP position. Other times he won without showdown. He's been both tricky and straightforward postflop with his made hands.

I've been making solid river value bets more and more lately, but I still check behind too much when I imagine monsters (ie. river c/r) behind every corner. Comments on all streets welcome.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (8 handed)

UTG+1 ($310.60)
MP1 ($165.25)
MP2 ($114.85)
CO ($23)
Hero ($123.35)
SB ($94.98)
BB ($62.82)
UTG ($244.65)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
2 folds, MP1 raises to $3.5, 2 folds, Hero calls $3.50, 2 folds.

Flop: ($8.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 bets $10, Hero calls $10.

Turn: ($28.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 bets $15, Hero calls $15.

River: ($58.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: $58.50

Isura · #2 12-18-2005, 11:20 PM

Stacks are still $130 on the river. Value bet the river. I think he will call with Ax thinking it is a split.

ajmargarine · #3 12-18-2005, 11:56 PM

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Stacks are still $130 on the river. Value bet the river. I think he will call with Ax thinking it is a split.

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Unless he has AK or A8....

It's kind of funny when you think about it how that turn Ace is really a blank. I was WA/WB on the flop, figured his overbet was worth a call and not a raise. And the second Ace really doesn't change that WA/WB reality. His check on the river just means to me that he doesn't have AJ or AT. He still could have a hand that beats me like AK, A8, 88 or JJ....Don't think this is an autobet, and that's why I posted. (plus I have no doubt he's calling me with whatever he has, he was pretty passive after one barrel if he didn't have much...I think he's got something good here, just a matter of if it's better than me)

bizaff · #4 12-19-2005, 01:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He still could have a hand that beats me like AK, A8, 88 or JJ....Don't think this is an autobet, and that's why I posted. (plus I have no doubt he's calling me with whatever he has...

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This quote makes me think you want to bet like $30 or so on the end. You don't want to get c/r'd, but it's awfully odd that he gave up on the end.

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...he was pretty passive after one barrel if he didn't have much...I think he's got something good here, just a matter of if it's better than me)

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These two parts seem to conflict each other. He got passive - why would he have something good?

ajmargarine · #5 12-19-2005, 04:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He got passive - why would he have something good?

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Well...I guess I didn't put it in the OP as part of the read, which is dumb on my part, because I didn't give you guys all the info I had, and it's a pet peeve of many posters here who make a post, give a read, and then give a better or more complete read later in the thread....But--

He's a preflop maniac, but he wasn't an idiot. If he faced resistance, he would shut down smartly. He didn't really overplay anything that I saw.

To answer a couple comments here: I don't like raising guys like this preflop. When you let them keep the betting impetus, they will think you are weak and fire one and two barrels at you. Also, guy overbet the flop...no sense in raising him there, IMO. Once he bet the turn, even though he slowed down, I am still WA/WB...There a raise might have been in order.

The river I need to bet like most of you said, even though IMO it's just a notch above thin. Just got to take things at face value until shown differently. He probably would have bet any full house, and so I'm probably good...So thanks all for the comments.

He held A7o and MHIG.

DJ Sensei · #6 12-19-2005, 12:37 AM

The key factor to me here is that he slows down on every street postflop (indicating that his hand is looking less and less valuable). On the other hand, I could also see JJ or 88 taking a line like this, hoping to induce your presumable Ax to raise the turn or bet the river...

I could go either way on it, but I think theres enough value in a bet to make it worthwhile. (lets just hope you dont get CR-ed)

#7 12-19-2005, 12:47 AM

I'm OK with the check on the river for the reasons you gave. I would have reraised preflop.

He may only have Jx here and thought he could scare you with the second A coming. The river check would then be because he knows he's beat, another reason to check since he would fold to a raise, and in case you are WB you can avoid a trap.

Mercman572 · #8 12-19-2005, 01:07 AM

Interesting, you feel villain will only call the river? Than whether or not a value bet is +EV depends entirely on the range of aces you can put him on. If that number exceeds the number of hands that beats you, it's an easy value bet.

tagtastic · #9 12-19-2005, 02:12 AM

You're way ahead IMO, if he even has an ace (unlikely) it's very weak. Being 75/25 I think he'll call a small-ish value bet though with whatever he has (a J? pockets? weak A?). If he c/r you then it's possible you are beat, very read dependent on what to do if this happens.

c_strong · #10 12-19-2005, 10:32 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You're way ahead IMO, if he even has an ace (unlikely) it's very weak. Being 75/25 I think he'll call a small-ish value bet though with whatever he has (a J? pockets? weak A?). If he c/r you then it's possible you are beat, very read dependent on what to do if this happens.

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I agree - I don't think he is likely to have an ace. Bear in mind his flop bet may well have been a c-bet, especially if he identified the ace on the flop as a bluffing opportunity. The ace hitting the turn probably made him think you don't have one (only 2 left in the deck etc.) Of course he could have the boat but given his stats I think you're ahead a substantial amount of the time.