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#11
12-20-2005, 07:43 PM
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Re: was I right to raise the turn?
[ QUOTE ]
assuming we have all twelve outs, our equity is 12/46, or 26%. surely there must be some discount for a possible higher flush draw here. we can also not realistically assume that everyone always calls. this can't be +EV, and this is ignoring the benefits of being bet into on the river compared to being checked to. you're basically lowering your own implied odds and pushing a nonexistant equity edge. [/ QUOTE ] I'm glad someone said this, because the turn 3-bet isn't close. Assuming 12 clean outs and that everyone always calls this line has an EV of +0.04BB. If SB has a set, someone holds a fd or someone folds it immediately turn into a clearly -EV decision. And as you point out, the tiny lost we might make by not raising the turn is very easily compensated by the times we're able to raise the entire field on the river when we're actually a ~95% favorite to take the pot instead of a ~25% favorite. 
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#12
12-20-2005, 07:56 PM
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Re: was I right to raise the turn?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I would have raised the flop though. [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Do you really think you're going to increase your chances of winning enough to make up for driving out potential customers? I think the flop bettor probably has an ace. [/ QUOTE ] first off our equity is fairly large on this flop so the times the action goes hero raises, foldss, mp2 3-bets we are not losing all that much in terms of expectation as our equity is high AND our implied odds also go up (if this guy's hand is strong enough to 3-bet, it is also strong enough for us to pick up 3bb the times we get there). Second point is that at this level sb and bb are almost never folding an ace for two bets and often times will even call with worse, so if they have something they are going to call with they will often call 2 bets cold with the same frequency as 1 bet. Third point is that people are often very passive at 0.5/1 and a free card play will work a large percentage of the time. Thus I think a flop raise makes us more in general, but it is probably close...
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#13
12-20-2005, 08:09 PM
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Re: was I right to raise the turn?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I would have raised the flop though. [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Do you really think you're going to increase your chances of winning enough to make up for driving out potential customers? I think the flop bettor probably has an ace. [/ QUOTE ] EV raise: x = probability we get 1 coldcaller y = probability we get 2 coldcaller 0.46*(1-x-y)*2 + x*0.46*4 + y*0.46*6 - 0.54*2 = = 0.92x + 1.84y - 0.16 EV call: u = probability we get 1 caller v = probability we get 2 caller 0.46*(1+u+2v) - 0.54*1 = = 0.46u + 0.92v - 0.08 Reasonable estimations at 0.5/1: x=0.4 y=0.2 u=0.45 v=0.40 Gives: EV raise: +0.58SB EV call: +0.49SB Eh, well... I though I might had been on to something with that calc, but the risk of being up against a fd, particulary when you get coldcall and the fact that losing custumers might lower our implied odds even though raising would pad the pot make me think a call is better. The raise isn't terribly far off though, even if my estimations is a little bit too optimistic what it comes to cold callers I think. A change of y to 0.1 would swing the calc by ALOT. EDIT: a change of y to 0.1 would change the ev for the raise to 0.39...
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#15
12-20-2005, 08:22 PM
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Re: was I right to raise the turn?
[ QUOTE ]
nick, How do we account for getting a free card on the turn in an EV calculation? [/ QUOTE ] It's easy. I don't [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] I first though it would be compensated by the fact that we expose ourselves for a 3-bet, but if we have gotten at least 1 coldcaller we like getting 3-betted so I would actually need to weight in the value of a free card.I actually might think it can swing the result so raising becomes slightly more profitable. Important to consider is that this is for 0.5/1. I don't think raising is better at 2/4 and above. And even at 0.5/1 it's probably close.
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#16
12-20-2005, 08:35 PM
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Re: was I right to raise the turn?
As you have seen I have neglected both the chance of getting a free card and getting 3-betted. It's just an approximation. I don't think the risk of a 3-bet swings the calcs by much, but the chance of getting a freecard should probably be accounted for.
Approximately I think you can see it as: x*1*0.74 - 0.26*1*x (x being the chance of getting a free card). So if the raise gives us the chance of 50% to get a free card, our equity is effected by: 0.5*0.74 - 0.26*0.5 = 0.24BB = 0.48SB This is a huge differance and would make thje raise easy. I've never accounted the value of getting a freecard before so i would like to get some opinions...
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#18
12-20-2005, 09:58 PM
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Re: was I right to raise the turn?
[ QUOTE ]
] Turn: (4 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+2 calls. [/ QUOTE ] As you know this would have been perfect flop play execuation - on the turn its alot of ramming and jamming that you are going to end up folding with one the river. Save ram and jams for the flop - with, with the double whammy draw you had, i most certainly would have done. I gurantee no one puts you on the straight on the river, would have got similar action. Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
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#19
12-20-2005, 10:00 PM
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Re: was I right to raise the turn?
The think it yr hand has like no SD value UI. Plus if you hit on the river you likely get someone to bet into you. I don't see the value of a river 3 bet here -- you don't (I think) have enough equity to make it immediately profitable.
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