Whats he got?

[bigfishead]

2/4 nl..only been at the table for 13 hands. This is the first hand villian has played. He's on the button. On the turn I figured I knew exactly what he had, with a 75% probability. Based on his previous tightness preflop and the actions to this point. any thoughts?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (8 handed) converter

Hero ($128)
Button ($236)
SB ($152)
BB ($258.30)
UTG ($329.60)
UTG+1 ($277.55)
MP1 ($406)
MP2 ($77.10)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $4, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls $4, Hero calls $4, Button calls $4, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($24) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $4</font>, MP2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $24</font>, Button calls $24, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 folds.

Turn: ($76) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $48</font>, Button calls $48.

River: ($172) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $52 (All-In)</font>, Button calls $52.

Final Pot: $276

K5s looks unlikely as on the river he would be forced to lay it down. The two hands I can put him on are KJ or KT IMO. I think he would not reraise KT as he has position and decided to let you bet into him, he is able to bet if you do not.

I'd say KJ/K9 or even possibly AT. Unless he felt like overslowplaying a set.

[FlyingStart]

On the flop it looked like he could have QJs (this looks like a good limping hand mulitway) with a backdoor flush, but he wouldn't have called the turn with that.. A weak king doesn't seem like a hand villain would play multiway (maybe if it was suited since he had position) and I think he would dump all weak kings from KJ-K2 on the turn. If he had two pair he should definitely raise somewhere, but this is hard to say since you have no read on villains quality of play.

My guess is KQ or 55

[flawless_victory]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB
Hero ($128)

who the fvck cares?

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB
Hero ($128)

who the fvck cares?

[/ QUOTE ]

I vote flawless for MSNL mod, and it's not close. if I get mod powers, im giving them to him.

KT or 55

[rikz]

The only hand you beat that calls your river bet is KJ.

I'm not sure I like your line, however.

You limped in a multiway pot with a trouble hands at a full ring table. I don't even limp unsuited broadway connectors to avoid getting into a fight post flop with TPWK and no draws. You flopped TPWK, and proceeded to bloat the pot on every street. Villain called and called and called. How can villain be in here with anything you beat unless he has exactly KJ? For example, if he was drawing to an OESD by calling the flop and turn, then the river didn't help him and you're river bet doesn't give him a chance to bluff at the river. He can just fold.

So, in general, I usually fold unsuited broadways even in LP. If I play them like you did here, then I would bet the flop, check the turn, and value bet the river. Or, if I suspected villain was drawing, bet the flop, 1/2 pot the turn, and check/call a reasonable bet on the river.

As a rule, I really don't want to get my whole stack in by the river with TPWK in an uraised pot.

Anyway, I think your line isn't usually the best one with TPWK out of position even if your read turned out right and he actually had KJ.

Edit: Oh, and this KJo flopping TPWK oop is a terrible hand to play short stacked. Wait for a better hand and/or reload before the hand plays.