I got it right, but my math might have been wrong

[jat850]

2/4 live at Commerce 9 players Villian 1 is BB and has a Vpip over 50%. Villian 2 is MP1, clearly a newbie and thinks his cards are better than they really are. Hero is CO with Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Pre-flop 6 players no raises, SB folds. (5.75sb)

Flop is: K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

BB (Villian 1) bets, EP1 folds, MP1(V2) calls, MP2 calls, LP1 folds, Hero calls. 4 players (9.25sb) I know I could have raised here, but that is not my question.

Turn: A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Now that puts a damper on things. Check around. 4 players (4.12BB)

River: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

BB bets, MP1 raises, MP2 folds....

I put them both on the flushes due to the check around on the turn. MP1 is frothing at the mouth and shaking, did he finally get a real hand? I look at my Q high straight and call time. I came to the conclusion that there was a relatively high probability that facing two flushes, one would likely contain one of the 2 cards that would beat me. I fold.

I would like to some some analysis on the odds of the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] being in play in the 4 out of 8 remaining [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. What were the odds that I was beat and should I have called anyway due to the pot size? How can the math be done quickly in a live game?

I had it right, but in the wrong spot. I thought the rookie really had it with his raise and froth. It was only a 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Villian 1 had the K high flush. It was hard to lay down a big flush when a flush was going to win. I would have stayed against 1 flush and folded versus two. Your thoughts please.

[W. Deranged]

1. You should absolutely be raising the flop here for value and free cards (but it seems you may know that already).

2. You've described both of your opponents as very poor players. They could have many hands that are not necessarily flushes.

Mathematically, the odds that you are in fact beating two flushes would (there are some hidden assumptions in this calculations which are not that interesting to the non-mathematically inclined, but if any of you want to get into it I'm willing to throw down... j/k)

6 choose 4 / 8 choose 4 = (7*6)/(11*10) = 3/14 = 21%

If BB calls, you will be calling 2 BB into an 8 BB pot. So a call here looks pretty borderline.

Of course, this is poker, and there are other factors:

-If someone had a flush draw with the A of diamonds, wouldn't they be pretty likely to bet this turn?
-Couldn't the BB, who led out on the flop, conceivably be betting out a K or two pair, having checked the turn because he was afraid of the A (this kind of weak play is not uncommon)?

And so on and so forth.

So, your intuition was right that this is a pretty close situation, but I think you should call.

Note, of course, that had you raised for value on the flop the river would be an easy decision. Not that this is why you would raise on the flop, but it is one important thing to think about when playing draws: get your money in when your draws are the most live and your presumed equity edge is the biggest.

[centja1]

I'll give this a shot here, but I may have done this incorrectly.

It is about 70:1 against one opponent getting dealt any suited A or K while you also get dealt a same-suited Queen. This is because there are 1325 hands left for your opponent to be dealt and only 19 hands will be a suited A or K of your suit (since you took the Queen and another card of that suit).

If you put this out over 8 opponents, then you have to dodget that 70:1 shot 8 times. This means that for a full, 9-handed table where you get dealt a suited Queen, it is about 9:1 against someone else getting dealt a suited A or K of your suit.

The fact that three more diamonds are on the board doesn't affect the calculation that much, if I'm looking at this right. There are now five board cards (including three of your suit), so even though there are now only 13 suited hands of your suit that contain an A or K, there are also only 990 possible two card hands. This increases the odds to about 9.5:1 against someone else having the suited A or K hand.

Any body spot a hole in any of this?

[centja1]

it looks like W could tell me where i fudged my math at since i don't quite come up with his 21% (although it is close)

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
Note, of course, that had you raised for value on the flop the river would be an easy decision.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm a little suspicious of this advice. Are you saying it would have been good to put in an extra bet that had an EV of 0 because then it would be an easy decision to put another two EV0 bets into the pot? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Seriously, OP, you must make this raise on the flop. Your bet has value all by itself and it may buy you a free card on the turn.

I also think this is a pretty easy river call. If either player had an A, they would have bet the turn. So effectively, there's one card that beats you. It's a rare case that you should fold with one card that beats you. Even if you're right that they both have flushes (and often times one of them is going to betting a set or 2 pair just because it's rare to see 9 diamonds in play), you should expect to have the top flush well more than 1/5 of the time, which is what you need to call.

[W. Deranged]

Sea Eagle...

It's not really advice so much as an observation. Of course no one should think about putting bets in on early streets like this.

But one of the reasons you do raise for value in situations like this one (on the flop) is to extract the most value for those times you do hit your hand. You're not putting money in early to impel yourself to put money in late; you are simply putting money in early when it is correct to do so, with the consequence that later streets become easier to play.

-Will

[callmedonnie]

I raise or fold preflop. I like all your play until river. Bad players, especially newbies, when they hit an ace think their hand is gold and check hoping to keep people in. I think you most likely have the best hand. I am raising this river.

[Sarge85]

[ QUOTE ]
. What were the odds that I was beat and should I have called anyway due to the pot size? How can the math be done quickly in a live game?



[/ QUOTE ]

I would say it probably doesn't happen enough to really worry about doing the math. You had third nut, and thats enough for me to jam.

Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

[BWebb]

[ QUOTE ]
I raise or fold preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think of the three choices, those are the two that are the worst.

[MrStretchie]

[ QUOTE ]
it looks like W could tell me where i fudged my math at since i don't quite come up with his 21% (although it is close)

[/ QUOTE ]

The main problem is that the three diamonds on the board do make a big difference. Basically, if we assume that they both have flushes, knowing that they don't have any of those cards makes it more likely that they have the ace or king. (Another way of looking at it is that if they could have any random diamonds, there's a decent chance the ace or king would be on the board.)

I think it's a large and generally wrong assumption that they both have flushes based on this play though..