Push all-in on this flop?

[FreakDaddy]

I feel like this is poker fundmentals 101. Villian is a little on the laggy side. I know he likes to bluff somewhat, and he sees about 38% of the flops. I thought he might be bluffing and a call might slow him down, but I feel like I would typically push this flop. His hand range is kind of wide, so even if he has a J, he might not have a Q or A. If he flopped a set, well...

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

UTG ($581.50)
UTG+1 ($96.77)
MP1 ($247.70)
MP2 ($238.70)
Hero ($112.65)
Button ($89.50)
SB ($104.15)
BB ($110.20)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $1, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls $3.

Flop: ($9.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $8</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to $20</font>, Hero calls $12.

Turn: ($49.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 calls $72.77 (All-In), Hero folds.

Final Pot: $122.27

i like the reriase,
the fact that he called your bet on the flop and then bet the turn, means he is not sure he has it to me
him pushing the turn is just trying to push you out
i think he has either JJ-QQ-KK, i believe he would re-raised you with AA..... i want to believe he has KTh, becuase your reraise on the flop makes you look like your defendind aginst the flush,

pushing on the flop might have got him out, makes your hand hard to read then

Hero never raised on the flop

right,
got that confused. thats where i would had decided to push or not, on the flop, all in there makes it tuff to call, but i still think hes trying to draw with the flush also

[FreakDaddy]

So you would push the flop?

im a rookie and more likely to take a chance if i have had a couple winning days. sad but true, thats why i keep tha tables 1$ or under
losing one buy in wont ruin me if im up that much that day or the previous day, espically when i dont think they will call

[whittiphil]

Fold turn.

Definitely do not push flop or turn. If you had gutshot straight with 2 overs + flush draw then maybe... but you don't.

[FreakDaddy]

Question: From your experience, does a set check/raise this little on the flop? Second question, I'm not much of a dog against reverse dominated hands, still ~47% to win. I have to have 4% fold equity for this to be profitable(if he doesn't have a set). And if he has an underpair, like small pocket pair I'm a favorite. You don't think it's here though huh? I don't know. I'm 50/50 on this one.

[Toyboy]

[ QUOTE ]
Question: From your experience, does a set check/raise this little on the flop? Second question, I'm not much of a dog against reverse dominated hands, still ~47% to win. I have to have 4% fold equity for this to be profitable(if he doesn't have a set). And if he has an underpair, like small pocket pair I'm a favorite. You don't think it's here though huh? I don't know. I'm 50/50 on this one.

[/ QUOTE ]

To answer your question:
I could certainly see myself playing a set (2s or 5s) exactly the way villain does both pf and on the flop.

His small re-raise might be encouraging an over-the-top from you which is exactly what he wants (I think...).

From his point of view, this flop is not a scary one if he has trips (flush draw, hearts, is certainly not the most likely holding he will put you on).

That being said I don't hate a push here. If he has trips: that's life and you still have like 30% pot equity (I think)or abt $50-$60 for an investment of $85.

Factoring in fold equity and the times he's got less than a set (including flush draws that you are ahead of) I think this is a slightly +EV move. And you will get more action on your future big hands of course...

[FreakDaddy]

Of course his almost mini-raise on the flop could be precisely that- a move to intice and over the top, which considering villian, seems likely, as a bluff I think would be a bigger raise by this kind of player. That's exactely what I was thinking, so I decided to call/fold turn unimproved since I didn't feel I had a solid enough read. Good post.