Session III Review: Hand 14 Nobody got nuttin

[grjr]

This is the kind of hand where I like to throw a bet out on the turn when it looks like everyone missed the flop. There's a pretty decent chance that everyone will fold and I probably have the best hand even if they don't. Why give the field a free card to pair up on the river?

[DrunkHamster]

Post the hand?

[grjr]

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...14&fpart=1

Hand 14

[moose47]

If the pot was a little bigger or you had one fewer opponent than I agree but I don't think a 2 BB pot is worth going after in this particular situation. I guess it is possible that all three opponents will fold to a bet but will it happen often enough to make it profitable?

[grjr]

[ QUOTE ]
If the pot was a little bigger or you had one fewer opponent than I agree but I don't think a 2 BB pot is worth going after in this particular situation. I guess it is possible that all three opponents will fold to a bet but will it happen often enough to make it profitable?

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With that rainbow 3 hitting the turn I would expect to take it down there at least 2 out of 3 times. There are a lot of pots out there like this where the first bet takes it down. It might as well be us taking the money.

This is an advantage that the blinds have that isn't exploited enough. We get first shot at an unwanted pot AND we may have any two cards since we were a blind so no one can put us on a specific range of hands.

[GrunchCan]

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I would expect to take it down there at least 2 out of 3 times.

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No way do you take it down that often with 3 opponents. But you probably do take it down 1:2, which is what you need to be +EV for a pure bluff, and there's probably a sliver of value here. Betting here is fine.

[grjr]

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I would expect to take it down there at least 2 out of 3 times.

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No way do you take it down that often with 3 opponents. But you probably do take it down 1:2, which is what you need to be +EV for a pure bluff, and there's probably a sliver of value here. Betting here is fine.

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What are we going to get called with on the turn? Overcards aren't going to call 1BB for a 3BB pot. Someone would have to have a PP or a J to call I would think. I'd be surprised not to take this down 2 out of 3 times unless I had a read on one of them as a complete calling station.

Since this is 2/4 I wouldn't expect to see AS MANY CS's as .50/1. Even if a previously unknown CS calls we probably have him beat anyways and if he's a true CS he won't bet the river unless he pairs up and maybe not even then.

[Somekid]

I think you're right about the turn bet. However, what do we do if we're called on the turn? Check/folding the river seems kind of weak since it seems like some players will call the turn with hands worse than ace high. But if we check/call and lose, then our turn bluff has cost us two big bets.

[grjr]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you're right about the turn bet. However, what do we do if we're called on the turn? Check/folding the river seems kind of weak since it seems like some players will call the turn with hands worse than ace high. But if we check/call and lose, then our turn bluff has cost us two big bets.

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Got to check/fold the river if you don't improve.

[Somekid]

Meh. I don't think everyone would fold here to a flop bet. In my experience I get one or two callers and then have no idea what to do on the turn. Then I end up leading the turn (getting called), and check/folding the river. Then again I make horrible postflop plays.

If I was feeling frisky though maybe I would c/r the flop only if MP bet (since he might bet for the same reason you wanted to). Then I'd lead the turn. Although I think I'd really just play it the way the hero did.

edit: My apologies. I thought the OP said flop. But I still don't think I'd bet the turn. I could see people calling who were scared with bottom pair. Maybe I'm too passive but I'd just check/fold it down.