when it would be painfully obvious you have the nuts... - Page 3

mgsimpleton · #21 11-08-2005, 12:32 AM

well the turn betwas not the initial raiser, SB was the initial raiser. and this guy limped on the button so i cannot possibly give credit for a set other than a donk with 222. also since it was checked to him on the button in my mind he really can't have kings up since he bets a king on the flop on that board. so yeah i guess JT ispossible or like JQ or Q9... or i guess a club draw. but those are sort ofthe only hands... and how convenient that he has one of so few hands when he is on the button and no one has shown any interest in a decently sized pot. i think he is usually bluffing here.

flawless_victory · #22 11-08-2005, 12:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
can someone throw out some likely hand ranges for button here please? this is sort of the point i'm trying to get at.

[/ QUOTE ]JT and Q9 are most likely hands... obviously, he could have anyhting... limped on button, raised pathetic weak bet in medium pot.
BTW/i like your play on all streets...

Go_Blue88 · #23 11-08-2005, 12:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
can someone throw out some likely hand ranges for button here please? this is sort of the point i'm trying to get at.

[/ QUOTE ]

It seems to me that the better question is, what do you think he will put you on that would cause you to cold call the turn raise, with the initial bettor left to act? If I'm the opponent, an alarm would go off in my head. So, unless he has you on a flush draw, I don't see how he is going to bet this river. I guess if he has a monster he might value bet it, but it doesn't seem like he has one given his action.

And if he is on a flush draw like you mentioned (I think), then by calling, if he hits you obviously lose money. If he misses, then given what I said above, he probably won't bluff here; so you make no extra money. I dunno, this doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

mgsimpleton · #24 11-08-2005, 12:38 AM

also i checked on the turn because like i said my c/r were getting no respect. so check it out... in this pot by the point of two times checked around i think a club draw is going to take a stab... and a club draw is only thing to which my hand is vulnerable. so:

my c/r gets no credit meaning any legit hand that bets turn might very well call c/r

any draw by this point will stab and allow me to c/r

i also give room for bluffing which i think will happen a fair amount.

those are my reasons for c/r the turn take them for what they're worth.

#25 11-08-2005, 01:04 AM

i'd like an order of condescending with a large side of sarcasm.....

Okay, but why do you limp UTG here???

Lucky · #26 11-08-2005, 01:14 AM

I dont mind check on turn as long as you c/r big.

I usually dont have discipline to c/r tho, and probably weak lead hoping to get raised from someone representing the nuts.

FoxwoodsFiend · #27 11-08-2005, 01:23 AM

I agree that if you're going for the check raise and then it has to become a reraise you should still put in another bet. The "alarm bells" as Blue put it, will be ringing regardless of which line you take-so which line is going to look most like a bluff?
Nobody calls to bluff the river with a player to act behind in huge pots, so a call and lead will be too suspicious.
Check-raise at least seems like it's somebody making a move.

As for check/call check/call I think it's going to be hard to get money in the pot unless villain is absolutely on a bluff-if a club comes on the river he'll be scared. If a club doesn't come he'll assume there's no point in betting since you probably missed your draw or have a monster.

#28 11-08-2005, 01:29 AM

I don't think your play here is bad at all. Nobody seems to have much on the flop.

Turn you get the nuts. Surely one of the two players behind you will take a stab at it, so you check with the intention to CR. That's fine. If you 3 bet the turn now when the action is back to you, you're basically turning your hand face up. Just calling at least gives some credibility that you're drawing, hoping that MP2 comes along for the ride. You do have the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] so you know the other players could put you on the nut flush draw.

MP2s bet reeks of weakness so button has a good chance to just be on a steal. If he does have something like JT, there is no way he's going to call a 3bet. The only thing you have to figure out is, does he have a decent holding? If yes, better to value bet river. If no, better to give him a chance to bluff it. 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] got there on the river, and I can see him playing the hand that way so that would definitely value bet the river, so would Q9.

mgsimpleton · #29 11-08-2005, 10:21 AM

hey so i thought i'd post the results, eh... basically i checked he bet 600, i moved in for another 350 and he quickly folded. maybe this isn't what usually happens but basically the way it went down i would expect ANYONE to raise in that spot on the button given the action. so since i expect him to raise the probability is he doesn't have like one of 5 or so hands that are possible, so he usually h as a bluff. given that there is no value to doing anyting but letting him try again and besides if he doeshave a set or Q9 and the river bricks and i check, im stacking him anyway.

after talking to people and reading the thread i like my line but i think a weak lead on the river would have been better for when he does have some sort of crappy pair so i can get a call and so he will still be tempted to bluff all in. sometimes when i get int hse situations i auto check without thinking. but i do think after calling this turn, there is no option on the river other than checking or a very weak lead.