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#11
02-10-2005, 07:49 PM
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Re: Would you push here?
[ QUOTE ]
Against a player who has been raising almost every hand this is any easy move all in play. No regrets. You are only slightly ahead of the small stack, plus you are looking to move up to first or second. 99 could well be the best hand you get in the next 20 minutes. [/ QUOTE ] SLIGHTLY Ahead of the short stack?. He will have the short stack more than doubled following this hand unless the SS wins the hand. Seriously, people. Play poker, not cards. 
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#12
02-10-2005, 07:51 PM
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Re: Would you push here?
I think the fact that so many people think pushing is correct here is a huge problem with their sng play, no matter what limit they play. This is a pretty easy fold. The bubble is all about FE, you are not the shortest stack, so you should never push unless you think there is a high probabilty that the opponent will fold, or that there is a high probability you will be in a dominating position to win the hand. A coinflip vs. someone with more or equal chips to you when you are not the short stack is a DISASTOR. That is exactly what happend here and its what you should be expecting when you pushed. I havent run an ICM on this hand yet but my intuition says that its a bad push unless you had some decent FE which it doesnt look like you did.
Don't get me wrong, I believe you should be crazy aggresive on the bubble, but usually only when your first in. Not when your calling all in (which you basically are here).
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#13
02-10-2005, 10:39 PM
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Re: Would you push here?
[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, IMO, there are a lot of benefits to playing weak tight, in this situation. Do not read the above statement to mean that I would fold this hand though. [/ QUOTE ] Scuba I think this is a good candidate for that forward FE concept we spoke of. You have basically zero FE here, but will still have plenty if you fold this time and open push later. Thoughts?
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#14
02-10-2005, 10:40 PM
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Re: Would you push here?
I hate it when all the good posters come in and give the answers when the HERO is trying to work through his problem.
Good answer guys. Dali said it well: Seriously, people. Play poker, not cards.
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#15
02-10-2005, 10:42 PM
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Re: Would you push here?
That is the correct answer, I was trying to get our HERO to think outloud so he could come to his own conclusions. In my comments, I insinuated the folding might be correct, followed by a statement saying "I might take it back."
Probably shoulda been a little more straight forward. See my previous post.
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#16
02-10-2005, 10:45 PM
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Re: Would you push here?
[ QUOTE ]
That is the correct answer, I was trying to get our HERO to think outloud so he could come to his own conclusions. In my comments, I insinuated the folding might be correct, followed by a statement saying "I might take it back." Probably shoulda been a little more straight forward. See my previous post. [/ QUOTE ] I think it's great you were trying to help him piece together the logic himself. Sorry to jump the gun. If it helps any, you helped *me* begin to understand the concept.
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#19
02-10-2005, 11:02 PM
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Re: Would you push here?
[ QUOTE ]
You are getting called 90% of the time [/ QUOTE ] that's not even close to true. the post stated that the villain has been raising almost every hand. think about it. [ QUOTE ] You are getting called 90% of the time, and are almost always going to be racing at best. [/ QUOTE ] yes, you are likely racing when you are called. sometimes you will be dominated, and sometimes you will be dominating. all in all you easily have pot odds when he calls you. your fold equity (which is very significant here), makes pushing ultra-easy.
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#20
02-10-2005, 11:07 PM
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Re: Would you push here?
[ QUOTE ]
Unless the initial raiser was pushing tons, I would fold this with few reservations. You are getting called 90% of the time, and are almost always going to be racing at best. The BB may have to call here also if you fold, as he will have only 870 left after this hand. Not that tough a fold at all. [/ QUOTE ] I fold this hand too, but I think the chance of getting called by the min-raiser is significantly less than 90% (at least at $109) for the following reasons: 1) Raiser has put in less than 15% of his chips and still would have chip lead on the bubble with a small stack at less than $1000. 2) If the raiser were to call and lose, he would not be short stack but would be pretty close. 3) If I was raiser I would have to assume that re-raiser has a pretty damn good hand and if I'm holding something like AT or a small to mid-level pair there's a good chance I am dominated. I would estimate the chance of a call at no more than 70%. If I were the original raiser, I'd need a pretty damn good hand to call in that situation.
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