Two Plus Two Older Archives battle of blinds on bubble
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#31
07-21-2005, 02:42 PM
 tigerite Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 360
Re: battle of blinds on bubble

Does it not have to be greater than 0.5% EV from the SB to be profitable though?

PS This is a clear push by the KS chart. So even if you threw your cards face up he'd be wrong to call
#32
07-21-2005, 03:22 PM
 valenzuela Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 453
Re: battle of blinds on bubble

WTF is M?? Plz dont tell em to buy the book.
#33
07-21-2005, 03:30 PM
 Nicholasp27 Member Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 93
Re: battle of blinds on bubble

if u have M&lt;5, then u are in the red zone, 5-10 is orange zone, 10-20 is yellow zone and 20+ is green zone...he talks about how u can play differently depending upon what zone u are in, etc

those 5/10/20 are inflection points

he also says to multiply M by % of people left if &lt;10 at table to get 'effective M' but that won't apply in sngs

otherwise if u have 5k chips with 4 left on table and 100/200 blinds, ur effective M would only be 6.67, which is too low for having 5k chips on the bubble in an 8k chip sng

so just use normal M, which is basically how many times around the table u can last before busting from blinds/antes
#34
07-21-2005, 03:52 PM
 Jay36489 Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: Chicago Posts: 248
Re: battle of blinds on bubble

It doesnt calculate what range BB will have. YOu estimate that and you can see whether a certain push is +EV, or you can see what range you can push that are +EV above a minimum, which is default at .5%.

If villian calls top 20% which is 33+,A4o+,A2s+,KJo+,KTs+
Your range to push which is +.5% EV or greater is
Push hands: 55+,A9o+,A8s+ (11%)

Villian calls w/ top 15% 33+,A7o+,A4s+,KTs+
Push hands: 44+,A7o+,A3s+,KQo,KTs+,QTs+,JTs (17%)

Villian calls w/ top 10% 55+,ATo+,A8s+,KQs
Push hands: 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J2+,T2+,92+,82+,73o+,72s+,62+,52+, 43o,42s+,32s (97%)

You mentioed

[ QUOTE ]
i'd be calling hands like 77, A8, KQ, maybe more. villain is deep enough that he can call, lose, and still be comfortably ahead of the shorty.

[/ QUOTE ]

77 is top 9% K-S
A8o is top 16% K-S
KQo is top 20% K-S

so this estimate of range is all over. Basically you don't need that 300, and if you can't put villian on a really tight range, you can not push here.
#35
07-21-2005, 04:01 PM
 Scuba Chuck Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: 1-table tournaments Posts: 1,537
Re: battle of blinds on bubble

[ QUOTE ]
I fold this. You can't put enough pressure on the BB to make him fold a hand like A9, KQ, or 77. Plus UTG is going to be very desperate very soon.

Your stack size is right around the point where UTG folds most hands you are a 60/40 against and calls with hands where are you are 70/30 or worse. And the 300 chips in the pot aren't worth it IMO.

Edit: if UTG's stack and Button's stack were both 1500 or so this is a push. Also if BB's stack and Button's stack were reversed this is a push.

Edit2: if you had 200 fewer chips also it is a push. I think all the details are exactly unfavorable enough to make it not a push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Durron, very good analysis. You could also add in that if the blinds were bigger, say 150/300, this is also now +EV. This is just another example of how complex this game can be, so many minor variations, and it changes the whole landscape.
#36
07-21-2005, 04:02 PM
 durron597 Junior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 6
Re: battle of blinds on bubble

[ QUOTE ]
33+,A4o+,A2s+,KJo+,KTs+

[/ QUOTE ]

This is about what I was thinking.
#37
07-21-2005, 04:14 PM
 schwza Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 113
Re: battle of blinds on bubble

[ QUOTE ]
It doesnt calculate what range BB will have

[/ QUOTE ]

right.... b/c it would need to be psychic.

[ QUOTE ]
or you can see what range you can push that are +EV above a minimum, which is default at .5%.

[/ QUOTE ]

why isn't the default 0%? if pushing is better than folding by \$0.000001, i want to push. (in fact, i would give up a tiny bit of equity b/c of hourly rate considerations. also pushing is fun.)

[ QUOTE ]
77 is top 9% K-S
A8o is top 16% K-S
KQo is top 20% K-S

so this estimate of range is all over. Basically you don't need that 300, and if you can't put villian on a really tight range, you can not push here.

[/ QUOTE ]

what is k-s? just because that range doesn't correspond with some hand chart doesn't make it not true. so i don't care if you think it's "all over the place."
#38
07-21-2005, 04:15 PM
 Jay36489 Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: Chicago Posts: 248
Re: battle of blinds on bubble

In that case its a VERY marginal push of +.1% EV. No reason to stick your neck out here.
#39
07-21-2005, 04:17 PM
 Nicholasp27 Member Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 93
Re: battle of blinds on bubble

if pushing is better by .000001, then you shouldn't wanna push, as you can pick a better place to increase your ev...u should be better than your opps...and you may be mistaken on ur opps' calling range
#40
07-21-2005, 04:18 PM
 schwza Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 113
Re: battle of blinds on bubble

[ QUOTE ]
In that case its a VERY marginal push of +.1% EV. No reason to stick your neck out here.

[/ QUOTE ]

why should we have a bias towards folding? if we believe it's +.1% we should obviously push. ICM already takes into account the fact that bubbling is bad.

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