($20) Early AKs

[fnurt]

Some of the advice in this thread makes me want to cry. Push and it's not close.

Folding here is obviously absurd, as you rate to be ahead of each of the opposing hands, and you even have position.

Calling 1/4 of your stack with the hope of flopping the nuts before proceeding is weak, and I don't care if TJ's book says to do it. The scenario where MP2 has something like AJ, an ace flops, and you win his whole stack is a nice thing to daydream about, but it's not as likely as the risk that he will hit a J when you let him see the flop for free, or that he will bet you off the pot with aggression after you both miss.

And even if you push, you will get called by some weaker hands, it happens. One way you can detect weak-tight advice is that it always assumes your opponents will play perfectly from this point forward. They're not reading 2+2 and they don't know your hand.

After all the great discussions we have had on this forum, AKs is still a "drawing hand"?!?!? Makes me want to take up chess.

[Superfluous Man]

[ QUOTE ]
After all the great discussions we have had on this forum, AKs is still a "drawing hand"?!?!? Makes me want to take up chess.

[/ QUOTE ]
Actually, it makes me want to play more poker. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[DireWolf]

[ QUOTE ]

Some of the advice in this thread makes me want to cry.


[/ QUOTE ]

me too.

For people saying AK is a drawing hand, please stop. There is no such thing as a made hand preflop, there is only potential to be best.

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
It is a good move to push if you have had limpers. You have 2 people telling you that they have good/great hands. I give them credit for that.

I don't think you are going to get a fold here. I think you will push then be all-in with a 50/50 shot and your tourney life at stake. This is also against 3 players, granted only one can seriously hurt you. Online, low buy-in, people don't fold prelop after calling for 25-50% of their stack (usually). So if you would like to race all the power too you. Personally I avoid the 50% shots. [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, the responses in this thread are horrible. There's no question in an online tourney the only move here is to push. HoH etc don't apply as much to shallow stack online tourneys with tons and tons of idiots where you can't read people. But to reply to the specific post...

Yesterday I pushed UTG w/ 10 bbs (around 100/50 linds) with AKs, one person called me with AJo, the other PUSHED (for about twice as much) with 66, and the AJ called and made his jack. THESE are the kinds of idiots that play these tourneys, ESPECIALLY in the 40k. Either one of these clowns could easily have medium pairs/worse aces than hero. I don't really care about getting the caller to fold, if he does, great and I'm getting a 50/50 (at worst, probably) with a little better than 2 to 1 pot odds. You can't pass that up, nevermind that there's a good chance he has just a weaker ace... Even if the caller calls the push, you're playing for a main pot with 50/50 at worse odds, and the sidepot is all overlay for you. You'll probably win both pots if you win one, so the shorty is basically overlay on your ev (at worst) neutral push.

AKs beniefits most from seeing all 5 cards, calling PF and then folding on a rag flop or something to the caller's inevitable flop push is AWFUL.

AKs is NOT a drawing hand. This is the easiest. push. ever.

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You have one of the best hands in poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

QQ is also one of the best hands in poker. But could you justify raising all in preflop with it if you suspected the original raiser had KK and the cold caller had AA?

[ QUOTE ]
There is a benefit of putting all your chip in preflop, and it is not an unnecessary risk.

[/ QUOTE ]

And in this context, the benefit is .... what????

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no way you can ever have that kind of read in online poker. Definatly not in the 40k (maybe at hte FT or something), maybe at $100+ buy ins or better. I'm calling a push and a call with QQ every time

[fnurt]

I'm going to coin a new phrase: "KK is only second pair."

[adanthar]

The replies to this thread make it the worst posted in MTT's this month.

[play2win]

Is your argument based on the perspective that online players in this type of low buy-in format in the early stages of the tournament are all playing very bad?

Do you think that the caller will indeed fold after calling for 25% of his stack (16 X BB)?

At least as far as my experience goes, they usually call. It would be great to see them flip an AJ or AQ, but mostly I would expect to see a mid PP. My guess is that if I kept pushing in blind every time there was some heavy action (bets of 10+ x BB being made and called) preflop with AK I would get busted out. Eventually the 50% shot will go the wrong way when someone either sucks out or their pair holds up. Do you disagree and why?

Do you prefer to get all your chips in early in low buy in online tourneys early, on 50/50 to try and accumulate chips fast? If so why?

Do you feel that flat calling this is putting too much emphasis on early stage survival?

p.s. I am not being a smart ass, I am seriously asking these questions looking for some solid reasoning. I really don't see the need for smart ass comments. Thanks. [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
Is your argument based on the perspective that online players in this type of low buy-in format in the early stages of the tournament are all playing very bad?



[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. Very very bad Jerry. 20+2s have terrible play period, but I have extra experiance particularly in the 40k. They are terrible.

For just one example, see my experiance yesterday. Someone called an UTG push for 10 bbs with AJ, then called another push (for twice as much). The Pusher had 66. Who pushes an UTG (that isn't really that desperate with 10 bbs) pusher, and a flat caller, with 66? The player with 66 had something like 25 bbs, and anyone with braincell knows the original caller will call, getting over 4:1 on his money. The caller and the pusher had about even money, so he put his tourney life on the line with 66...

[ QUOTE ]


Do you think that the caller will indeed fold after calling for 25% of his stack (16 X BB)?



[/ QUOTE ]

You're missing the point. You want them to call. If they fold it's not a bad thing, but what you're trying to do is go heads up for most of the money here (~700). I'm not even sure it's a good thing if they fold . Calling also allows other people in on the hand, which makes it EVEN WORSE for you. Pushing here is win win, if they call, it's a win, if they fold, it's still a win, or at least not bad.

[ QUOTE ]


I would expect to see a mid PP. My guess is that if I kept pushing in blind every time there was some heavy action (bets of 10+ x BB being made and called) preflop with AK I would get busted out. Eventually the 50% shot will go the wrong way when someone either sucks out or their pair holds up. Do you disagree and why?


[/ QUOTE ]

See my above post. If they have a mid pair, and the original pusher doesn't have AA/KK, the shorty's money is bascally ALL OVERLAY. That is, assuming your A/K outs are good (if you hit your A/K you will generally win) You're getting even money odds on JUST the caller, the shorty's money gives you MORE than even money. Nevermind that they could both have weaker aces, or you could be dominating the caller's weaker ace.

[ QUOTE ]


Do you prefer to get all your chips in early in low buy in online tourneys early, on 50/50 to try and accumulate chips fast? If so why?

Do you feel that flat calling this is putting too much emphasis on early stage survival?



[/ QUOTE ]

Flat calling is bad for all the other reasons given. This isn't a 50/50 situation, if you understand that, your question goes away. As to the bigger issue, if I somehow *knew* that I was 50/50 in a situation, a situation being truly EV neutral, I might pass it up at an early stage of a tourney. But you never know you're exactly 50/50. Early in a tourney (before like 200/400 blinds AT LEAST) you can never be confident that you have a read good enough to lay down QQ/AA/AK PF against 1 caller. If you never folded QQ-AA/AK/AKs early in the 40k or a 20+2 you'd rarely be making a mistake. You just can't have reads on people in this tourney enough to lay down AKs here, ever.

[Brad F.]

[ QUOTE ]
Is your argument based on the perspective that online players in this type of low buy-in format in the early stages of the tournament are all playing very bad?

Do you think that the caller will indeed fold after calling for 25% of his stack (16 X BB)?

At least as far as my experience goes, they usually call. It would be great to see them flip an AJ or AQ, but mostly I would expect to see a mid PP. My guess is that if I kept pushing in blind every time there was some heavy action (bets of 10+ x BB being made and called) preflop with AK I would get busted out. Eventually the 50% shot will go the wrong way when someone either sucks out or their pair holds up. Do you disagree and why?

Do you prefer to get all your chips in early in low buy in online tourneys early, on 50/50 to try and accumulate chips fast? If so why?

Do you feel that flat calling this is putting too much emphasis on early stage survival?

p.s. I am not being a smart ass, I am seriously asking these questions looking for some solid reasoning. I really don't see the need for smart ass comments. Thanks. [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

You aren't thinking about this problem in terms of numbers at all, that's the issue.

It's not 50% to win the hand if you get headsup. That's elementary and just is easy to say. But let's say it was. You are 50/50 to win 760 when you only risked 245. So 245 to win 760, that means that you are very happy to be at 50% if you get it heads up. And if you actually put a solid range in for the UTG raiser, you are better than 50% to win against his range here. (Let's say 22+, AJ+, KQ at this level-he's short stacked and feels like he needs to make a move). So if MP2 folds we're really happy with the situation.

When you get called by MP2 as well, you are still looking good in terms of +cEV. There will be 1440 in the side pot. Against MP2 you are about even heads up to win the sidepot against his range as well (77+, AQ+), but that's quite a tight range.

So you are happy when MP2 folds, because you are ahead of UTG's range, and you are happy when MP2 calls as well, based on his range.

This is a very rough outline of what you should be looking at, I'm at work and don't have my poker calculator. In these long tourneys you need to take +cEV moves and this one is VERY +cEV.

Brad