Did I run into an expert?

[Che]

Reasons why you can slowplay sets with position vs. flush draws:

1. The flush draw only comes in 1 time in 5. If the opponent checks a non-flush turn, you bet (and are therefore no longer slowplaying).
2. If the flush card comes in on the turn, most opponents with the flush will check "to trap" you and then bet the river small "to get value" since they don't want to scare you off. Thus, you get a free draw to 10 outs on the turn PLUS you are usually priced in to call the river since they frequently don't have the flush and your set is good despite the board 3-flush.
3. If the flush comes in on the river, most opponents bet small (see comments above).
4. The opponent doesn't even have a flush draw in the first place a *big* majority of the time when you look at the probability of being dealt 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]'s when 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]'s come on the flop. You don't use the pure math unadjusted as the hand develops since his betting pattern will increase or decrease the probability that he has a flush draw, but you need to be aware of it. In this particular hand, our hero's actions were not representing flush draw so that is a point in favor of slowplaying the set of 9's.
5. If the villain does bet big on a flush card, grit your teeth and call a decent % of the time. If you fold your set every time a flush card hits in a tough game, you'll get killed.

Later,
Che

[Che]

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How would you be punishing him more? You are not punishing the draws. That's not what the raise is for.

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If you call his bet, he sees the next card for no further investment (i.e. for free) since the chips he already bet are sunk cost. The only way to make him 'pay' at this point is to raise.

[ QUOTE ]
If you raise back, say 450 more, he has to call 450 into a pot of 1350, making that call correct.

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The call is (roughly) correct if he gets to see 2 cards for that price. But, if calling only gets him 1 card for a 2:1 price when the odds are 4:1 against him, the call is incorrect unless he is very confident that he can make up the difference via implied odds.

[ QUOTE ]
Am I missing something here?

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Yes, the concept of sunk cost. Said another way - understanding that calling a bet gives a draw infinite odds to catch up with you. This is a very important concept so think about it a while and make sure you get it.

(Not trying to be condescending in any way. Merely trying to point out that this is important and needs to be understood.)

Later,
Che

[rickr]

My problem with that is you are building a pot that will be very hard to get away from against a stack that can bust you out. I think a decent raise as you say on the flop is very dangerous. So many people who would drop the draw on the turn will not do so on the flop.

If I'm villian, my thoughts would be, "He's priced himself out for the draw, so raising only builds the pot. I've got position, so I'll wait for a blank on the turn and raise it up." Hero's full pot bet on the turn, I would have been "What the H*** does he have? I'm 99% sure I'm ahead here." But the only way I'm really giving him bad odds at this point is a push (Which is what I would do here). My guess at this point was villian was seeing monsters, but couldn't give up his set.

Later,
Rick

[jon_1van]

If you're the villian why wouldn't you think ::

"It is very very unlikely I am behind now. If I'm facing a flush draw I want my opponent to put in a truck load of money because most of the time he won't make his flush. And even if he does make his flush I might hit the full house. Won't it be awesome to go from slight chipleader to huge chipleader. Wait, Wait, before I get ahead of myself....how should I play this to get the most money in the pot??? If I just call this bet my opponent could very well bet any brick AND check any flush card. That sounds like a reciepe for doubling up or surviving if I'm behind. Lets do that"


It would be great if we could get some money in the pot now. Watch the turn blank. And the pick up a decent pot with very little risk. This is a workable plan for a long, long tourney. But in these SNGs you don't have much time to wait for better spots. So if you think you have a decent edge. (you will win this 75% of the time even if you know the opponent has Ts 2s, and you'll win 82% if you put the opponent on the OESD + flush draw 68s). Try to get the money in.

[rickr]

Not disagreeing with you. I was simply trying to give an idea as to villians train of thought. Myself, I hate slowplaying anything short of the nuts when someone out of position shows that they really like there hand and I'm a favorite to be ahead. As in this case, I seriously doubt that hero would have layed down to a push, much less a raise. How could he? How often are you going to lay down 2 pair here. As someone said, I'm losing all my stack on this board, then cussing myself later.

The slowplay here is dangerous. I don't really even believe it was a slowplay. More likely someone that couldn't give up the set who got lucky.

My interest now is in thinking more about this sunk money idea. Got to ponder it more.

Later,
Rick

[jedi]

So my question is: Can you, playing as villain in this hand, lay down your set of 9s when the 3rd [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] hits the board against the 2nd chip leader?

I run into this situation all the time, and I'm STILL fearful that I'm always being pushed around by someone bluffing the scare card. If I were villain, I'd be raising in this spot, building a pot is fine for me and I have to push on the non-heart turn. If the turn was a heart though, I'm not sure what I'd do.

[rickr]

No, I'm not good enough. That's why I'm getting my money in early, while I think I'm ahead. I've given up on slow play for the most part. I would have slowplayed this if the flop had been 99T, but not this flop.

Later,
Rick

[ReDeYES88]

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Ive found it better not to try to figure out what the other person is thinking because most other players are idiots and dont play things the way I would which ends up screwing me up more in the long run.

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I am going to print this out, frame it, and hang it on the wall above my desk. It is the answer to all of my problems [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]