$10 MTT Party Poker 1st Hand - Right Call?

[illegit]

You really shouldn't need math to figure this one out, especially given the ranges you gave. Give him AA 80% of the time then maybe it might be worth looking at, but since you can never do that anyway it wouldn't be particularly relevant.



((0.8 * -1000) + (0.2 * +1025)) * 0.1 = -59.5
((0.66 * +1025) + (0.33 * -1000)) * 0.3 = +103.95
((0.67 * +1025) + (0.33 * -1000)) * 0.2 = +71.35
((0.8 * +1025) + (0.2 * -1000)) * 0.4 = +248

103.95 + 71.35 + 248 - 59.5 = +363.8

That is huge +cEV.

EDIT: Yeah, roger checked me. I used some rough numbers so his is probably more precise.