Overplayed AA or just lucky opponent draw?

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Not a chance 55 was laying this down... ever. If, for whatever reason, he called preflop with 55, and then folds when a 5 hits.. why in the hell was he in the hand then? To hit a 1 carded straight?

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I'm pretty sure he meant the 55 was folding pre-flop, though he did word it ambiguously. But he was definitely talking about KK would have played pre-flop in the same sentence, so that's what I took him to mean.

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Not a chance 55 was laying this down... ever. If, for whatever reason, he called preflop with 55, and then folds when a 5 hits.. why in the hell was he in the hand then? To hit a 1 carded straight?

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I'm pretty sure he meant the 55 was folding pre-flop, though he did word it ambiguously. But he was definitely talking about KK would have played pre-flop in the same sentence, so that's what I took him to mean.

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O... yeah just reread that. Makes sense that way too :-)

Sure, tripping a pair on the flop is lucky, but did villain make a mistake? I don't think so.

What you have is less important than what your opponent thinks you have. While you say that your 5X BB pre-flop raise was not unusual, it often represents a mid-pair that does not especially want to be called or an Ax less than K. Since, heads up, pockets nines will play well against smaller pairs or AT AJ AQ, villain was right to call. He was up there in M, and reasoned, rightly, that he could grab your stack if he tripped up on the flop and you had a strong holding, and could fold if he didn't (losing T$800 on T$7650, and letting you catch up to his stack) He would be is pretty much the same situation as he is now if he didn't flop trips, but be way ahead if he did flop.

Not so much a bad beat as being outplayed. BTW: Did you have any reads on villain's style of play? If so, his raise on the flop may have been a warning. There was T$2100 in the pot at the flop, you bumped T$1600. He raised T$2000 into a $3700 pot. This can not be seen as any type of probe or continuation... he wasn't drawing, he was made. Depending on his playing style it COULD have been K-9 suited that became two-pair (loose style) or even KK that tripped (tight).

Since you had no overt pressure to raise your stack NOW, (M=23.28) I don't think you should have gone all-in at that point unless you had a definte read on him.

While we're talking about reads, do you think he had a read on you? Do you vary your raises, or do you fall into a pattern? Did he take a flyer that paid off, or did he read you as beatable?

Of course, hind-sight is always 20/20.

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Sure, tripping a pair on the flop is lucky, but did villain make a mistake? I don't think so.


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By the Fundamental Theorem of Poker, he made a mistake. He called with a hand that he would have folded if he knew what Hero held (ie, he had neither the correct expressed or implied odds to see the flop. That fact that Hero could have held other cards is what enabled Hero to induce a mistake by Villain, but it doesn't mean Villain did not make a mistake in this sense.

[suckbot]

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Not so much a bad beat as being outplayed. BTW: Did you have any reads on villain's style of play? If so, his raise on the flop may have been a warning. There was T$2100 in the pot at the flop, you bumped T$1600. He raised T$2000 into a $3700 pot. This can not be seen as any type of probe or continuation... he wasn't drawing, he was made. Depending on his playing style it COULD have been K-9 suited that became two-pair (loose style) or even KK that tripped (tight).

Since you had no overt pressure to raise your stack NOW, (M=23.28) I don't think you should have gone all-in at that point unless you had a definte read on him.

Of course, hind-sight is always 20/20.

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I did not really have a good read on him. He was a fairly new comer to the table. However, I had raised two or three times in two orbitz and he could have thought I was stealing certainly. I wasn't I had a pretty good card rush, but that's besides the point.

In hindsight, I think you're right. I bet, he called. flop. he checked, I make what is likely just a continuance bet. He re-raises me.

That should have been a bright red flag. If I folded at that point, I would still have been in it with a shot at the tourney. I just think it's hard to get away from AA without some really obvious "You're so beat" sign.