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#12
12-02-2005, 06:13 PM
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Re: Flopped middle set with heavy action (stars $50r)
33 isnt a concern as well, I think the only hands you are worried about is 4 6 and 77. BB could easiy be holding 73 or an outside shot of 75. So your only beat two ways. Set over set happens however unlikley. Calling the third raise will should set alarms off in the BB head if he doesnt have 4 6 or 7 7. Call the flop, and I actucally like a check behind on the turn. It will induce a bet from a worse hand on the river or simply create a cheper showdown without going broke. And if the board pairs im sure their is only one soloution that comes to mind.
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#13
12-02-2005, 06:14 PM
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Re: Flopped middle set with heavy action (stars $50r)
i think im peeling here.
no way BB has an overpair here. maybe like a 1% chance. (all these percentages are somewhat arbitrary, btw) also like a 5% chance that he has a naked 7. and maybe like a 5% chance he is (terribly) playing 86 like this (ew). probably give him another, i dunno, 10% chance of just being a complete idiot. which leaves us with 80% of the time he has 46, 73, 75, 53, 33, 77. fairly ugly situation. plus, wtf does mp2 have?? cold called a bet, a call, and a raise? yeesh. i would be very interested in hearing some of the deeper stack NL cash game players weigh in. because i dont know what to do here.
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#14
12-02-2005, 06:22 PM
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Re: Flopped middle set with heavy action (stars $50r)
My guess at BB's range is two pair (75, 35, 73), straight (64), overpair that doesn't raise preflop (88,99,TT), set (33, 77), top pair + gutshot (76,74), and for donkey equity 78.
I think that observing this range makes it clear that raising is wrong (raising let's him get away from hands that are drawing very slim like 76, 74, and maybe 88,99,TT, and costs you lots against 64 and 77. I may even play a turn blank passively, as we're basically WA/WB here.
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#15
12-02-2005, 06:39 PM
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Re: Flopped middle set with heavy action (stars $50r)
Of course you call here, unless you want to make it 4K and then barf and fold to a push or something.
If the turn is a blank and he bets 4K in that particular tournament, I can see myself folding this. Any other amount, any weakness, or a check, and I'm going to bet/call with plans to raise the river.
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#16
12-02-2005, 08:00 PM
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Re: Flopped middle set with heavy action (stars $50r)
Well, as is the general consensus, I called, and planned to reevaluate on the the turn.
However, MP2 raised to 4200 (2600 more). After thinking for some time, BB smooth calls, and action is back to me. What now?
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#18
12-02-2005, 08:16 PM
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Re: Flopped middle set with heavy action (stars $50r)
Lol, they're both on crack. BB doesn't have the nuts (so probably 2 pair) and MP2 has threes, sevens or nothing much at all like an overpair.
I think I push now and get this over with.
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#20
12-02-2005, 08:20 PM
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Re: Flopped middle set with heavy action (stars $50r)
[ QUOTE ]
Lol, they're both on crack. BB doesn't have the nuts (so probably 2 pair) and MP2 has threes, sevens or nothing much at all like an overpair. I think I push now and get this over with. [/ QUOTE ] haha, my thoughts exactly, i mean WTF? So yeah, I pushed, both instacalled and flipped over their 64. Ah well.
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