NL50 - overpair on flop faces big reraise

[Niediam]

Villian is 51/5/1.4 over 40 hands.

Hero and Villian have a full stack.

PREFLOP:
Hero has Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] UTG and raises to $2.
Dude1 calls in MP. Dude2 calls in MP. Dude3 calls in SB. Villian Calls in BB.

FLOP ($10 pot):
Flop is 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Dude checks. Villian bets $4. Hero raises to $12. All dudes fold. Villan goes all-in. Hero?

Thanks for your thoughts.

I would fold.

Villain could easily be fast-playing a set or hit two pair out of the BB. If he had AA or KK I think he would have re-raised pre-flop. The only thing you are beating is AT, JJ or perhaps 99, but 99 and AT seem like a stretch. Although he is very loose, you can only call if you think he makes this move (after he's seen you raise UTG and raise his flop-bet) with a bluff/JJ/TPTK.

Find a better spot to stack him

[Niediam]

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold.

Villain could easily be fast-playing a set or hit two pair out of the BB. If he had AA or KK I think he would have re-raised pre-flop. The only thing you are beating is AT, JJ or perhaps 99, but 99 and AT seem like a stretch. Although he is very loose, you can only call if you think he makes this move (after he's seen you raise UTG and raise his flop-bet) with a bluff/JJ/TPTK.

[/ QUOTE ]

What about the fact that Hero would only have to win the hand about 33% of the time for the call to be neutral EV?

Depends on your read of the villain. If you think he is capable of making this play with A 10, JJ, possible str8 draw, call. I don't know what to do here, but given villain's description and the stakes, I am leaning towards calling.