Math and Hand Analysis

[nyrush]

How much math do people use? I find using math when determining to call easy as in harrigton pot odds and hand analysis as there is enough time to make hard decisions. However, I want to base my game in math and hand analysis even more as in TOP analysis at the table where David says you determine the percentages of hands your opponent holds and then figure out which play is correct against each hand and then whichever play is correct most of the time is the one you use. ex. if it is correct to bet when he has hand a that he has 40% of time and check against hand b (10%) c (20%) and hand c (30%), then you would check even though he has hand a most of the time. This seems it would be more accurate then just intuition as w/ intuition you may choose the play against hand a, but it would make other players upset as by the time i came up with percentages and what play to use (i take into account a lot of factors) a lot of time would pass. Does anyone use the strategy David suggests and is there a way to make this and other things in poker like this go faster?

[KneeCo]

Practice.

I hate to quote Rounders since there is no greater way to come off as a total fish, but here goes anyhow. At one point in the movie, the main character is explaining how he takes evertying into consideration while playing or even watching a poker game, he says it is like breathing.

Just keep practicing and soon enough it will be second nature.

That being said, you don't want to hold up your games too much, practice with online hand histories or examples in books.

[Leonardo]

Very true. Practice is the key.

Anyone who tells you they do this analysis at the table is flat out lying. I believe that very good players will do this away from the table and play one hand over using math and taking into consideration the best play considering the percentage of this etc etc, something like a decision tree, wether done explicitly or implicitly. It needs to become second nature. For example, I think a great start in doing this would be:

A tight aggressive player raises UTG, and you are the button with QQ, and you know he will do this with AA,KK,QQ,JJ,AK,AQs. What you can now do is work out what you best play is under each circumstance. The best way to do it would be turn his cards up when he has AA. Work out the EV of raise,call,fold. Do this for each hand and then add together all the EVs of raise, all those of call and all those of fold and hey presto (assuming you weight them correctly) you have your answer. Now lets be realistic. This is literally going to take hours to complete. You can do it at home and then forever you will know what the best play is under these circumstances. The more you do it the more circumstances you will be able to handle.

[xxxxx]

If the decision is close enough that I have to do math, it doesn't really matter which decision I make.

[Leonardo]

This is a terrible idea. If you have not done the math before you set out to play, you will not even know if it is close enough or not. This is the typical response of someone who just can't be bothered to do the math. Why is it that so many of the good young players these days are strong in math if , by your reasoning, it is not necessary? I say do the math, at home, explicitly, so that when you come to play the game you will be able to do it implicitly and hence quickly. Otherwise you will be making some fundamental errors without knowing it.

[jumister5889]

[ QUOTE ]
If the decision is close enough that I have to do math, it doesn't really matter which decision I make.

[/ QUOTE ]
That's jsut dumb. Practice makes perfect, just keep practicing doing the math and sooner or later you'll see enough situations where you dont even need the math anymore, you'll just know the percentages from memory.

[xxxxx]

Who said I didn't do the math before I set out to play?

I know the percentages from memory.

[Louie Landale]

There's someone who can reliably, quickly, accurately, and routinely plot the opponent's spread of possible hands, determine their likeliness, then multiply that with the EV you get with your hand matched against all those, add it all up, and compare for fold, call, raise, bet, or check?

No there isn't.

But there are folks who can tell if the opponent is betting a strong hand, a weak hand, or a draw. After you figure that out your response is easy and it doesn't take math.

Use your math away from the table to work out interesting situations that came up today. That way when you are in a similar situation you'll have a pretty good idea what to do.

- Louie