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  #1  
Old 12-21-2005, 05:30 PM
sthief09 sthief09 is offline
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Default Re: fairly simple 20-40 hand

very unlikely he doesnt cap preflop with a better hand. very unlikely he just calls the flop with a T. not that likely he raises 33/22 in the hijack. you have the best hand almost always. 3-bet. i dont know what hes raising with but id rather get the money in than try to hope he bluffs the river. he might have AQ or something and decide he wants to look you up. he might fold 6 outs on the spot but fold to a river bet if you call, or check behind the river if you call. i dont think its an easy 3-bet despite being almost positive you are good here just becuase theres not a whole lot of value in it. but its better than calling when you know you are best

i take ti back. i didnt see he was 20/12/1.2. i call down
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  #2  
Old 12-22-2005, 04:41 PM
StellarWind StellarWind is offline
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Default Re: fairly simple 20-40 hand

[ QUOTE ]
very unlikely he just calls the flop with a T.

[/ QUOTE ]
Because? I sometimes call this flop with a ten intending to raise the turn.

More importantly, Villain did call the flop and he has to have something. There is no obvious reason why KT is raising the flop while 88 is raising the turn instead. The relative probabilities of a ten or pocket pair don't seem to have changed much from preflop:

AT: 8
KT: 8
QTs: 2
JTs: 2

88-66: 18

That's 20-18 in favor of the ten. Obviously you can adjust his starting standards a little but it should always come out about 50-50. We can also consider:

Flush draw AJ/KQ/KJ/QJ: 4

Clearly these aren't worth face value. Maybe I'll call them 2 and make it an exact 20-20 tie.

I think most posters are too optimistic. Your pot equity looks about 50% here. Further aggression is good if you can comfortably fold to another raise. Personally that idea doesn't thrill me. Further aggression is bad if he finds the fold with an underpair. That sounds like some posters I know with stats similar to Villain's.

I call this down but it's a close choice. You could reconsider after you see the river. Bet-folding could work if you caught something to represent, like an ace.
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  #3  
Old 12-22-2005, 04:49 PM
d10 d10 is offline
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Default Re: fairly simple 20-40 hand

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
very unlikely he just calls the flop with a T.

[/ QUOTE ]
Because? I sometimes call this flop with a ten intending to raise the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

What's your line when the turn brings another overcard?

[ QUOTE ]
More importantly, Villain did call the flop and he has to have something. There is no obvious reason why KT is raising the flop while 88 is raising the turn instead.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think there is. 88 may be planning on calling down, or raising a safe turn. Another T is about the safest card 88 could see. However I'm always raising a T on the flop here.
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  #4  
Old 12-22-2005, 05:32 PM
StellarWind StellarWind is offline
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Default Re: fairly simple 20-40 hand

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Because? I sometimes call this flop with a ten intending to raise the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

What's your line when the turn brings another overcard?

[/ QUOTE ]
You mean the first overcard?

I do whatever makes me happy depending on the exact situation:

1. Scream "damn the torpedos" and raise anyway.

2. Pat myself on the back for my good timimg in not raising the flop and then quietly call down or maybe peel and fold the river.

I'm certainly not going to kick myself about just calling the flop after a vomitrocious turn hits. Raising the flop and having an ace hit your KT is the worst feeling in the world.
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