call down with JJ?

peterchi · #1 04-20-2005, 07:15 PM

My first post, don't be gentle on my play but please be gentle if the post is f'ed up [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

villian is 40/11/0.7 in 27 hands

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, MP2 3-bets, 4 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP2 raises, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls.

River: (7.75 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9.75 BB

Mostly concerned about what to do on the turn, but comments on all streets appreciated.

mute · #2 04-20-2005, 07:22 PM

I'm not giving my opponent credit for an overpair until he caps the flop, so I would 3bet and lead the turn (unless he caps) and call down if raised.

You will end up giving your opponents with AK/AQ too many free cards on the turn by playing it this passively , I think.

PokerSparky · #3 04-20-2005, 07:32 PM

Cap preflop.

3 bet the flop. If villain caps, call down. If just called, lead the turn.

imported_CaseClosed326 · #4 04-20-2005, 07:32 PM

I would three bet this pre-flop. Which would change the rest of the hand.

But the way it was played I would three bet the flop. Then if it is capped, call down.

BriPlay · #5 04-20-2005, 08:07 PM

i'd 3 bet this flop!
you have overpair and are behind only to QQ, KK, AA, TT, or 8x. Villain could have A8 or maybe K8 given that he's loose. This is actually a pretty good flop for JJ.
If he caps flop, you have decision to make. lead out on turn, and if he raises, call him down.
Brian

cbragado · #6 04-20-2005, 08:19 PM

I think the hand was well played. I like calling down here
as your opponent can have ace ten here and may play it the same way. With an 8 he may wait and raise the turn.

masonx · #7 04-20-2005, 08:43 PM

yeah i you gotta three-bet this flop.

Nick C · #8 04-20-2005, 09:04 PM

In my opinion, you guys who want to 3-bet the flop need to be thinking about folding if you do that and are raised on the turn. I know Villain is a preflop LAG, but his stats do indicate he slows down after that. (Plus, the 11% PFR isn't really out of line. Edit: I should mention too that the 27-hand sample is relatively small.)

I think Hero's play in this hand is all right.

w_alloy · #9 04-20-2005, 09:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
In my opinion, you guys who want to 3-bet the flop need to be thinking about folding if you do that and are raised on the turn. I know Villain is a preflop LAG, but his stats do indicate he slows down after that. (Plus, the 11% PFR isn't really out of line.)

I think Hero's play in this hand is all right.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you would deffinently be right if you had a lot more than 27 hands on villian. I'm not of the school of thought that you shouldnt use pt unless you have over x hands, but with this low of a sample size theres so much room for statistical error, especially postflop.

I think standard play here is how people have been saying, cap preflop, 3 bet flop, lead turn, call down if capped on flop or raised on turn. If we could really trust the .7 i play this differently, but i dont think we can enough.

Nick C · #10 04-20-2005, 10:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think standard play here is how people have been saying, cap preflop, 3 bet flop, lead turn, call down if capped on flop or raised on turn. If we could really trust the .7 i play this differently, but i dont think we can enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

What range of hands do you put Villain on if you 3-bet the flop and he raises the turn? (Edit: Remember, he did also 3-bet preflop.)

I agree that 27 hands isn't much, but we shouldn't trust the 40/11 any more than the .7, really. And the 11% PFR isn't really all that much. Mine is fairly close to that, for instance, and you won't see me raising the turn after being 3-bet on the flop if I don't have a hand that can beat JJ very often.

We shouldn't evaluate our opponents based on how we play, I know, but if we play the flop very aggressively and Villain doesn't seem to mind, I don't think we should just disregard the information we're getting, either.

In any event, given the uncertainty of our read and Villain's LAGgy tendencies over a small number of hands, I think Hero's line is fine. I want to see a showdown, and I don't want to pay a lot of additional bets to do it, when Villain's willingness to continue raising reduces the likelihood that my hand is best.