Make a stand with 33? BB vs SB

Final table of Bay 101 R/A ($45+15), 10 players left, 1st pays about $3700, 9th $220, 10th $180.

Blinds 2000/4000
Hero is BB (~t22,000)
Villain is SB (~t20,000)
(Chip leader has about t50,000 and we are the two shorties.)

Folded around to SB who pushes. I’m BB with 33.

I mucked this but I was wondering what this group would have done. With 33, I’m certainly racing against any two cards and behind any other PP except 22. Gamboling would give me quite the healthy stack, but there’s got to be better spots right?

I don't think reads are especially relevant in this hand but SB hasn't done anything stupid in the 1 orbit we've played together.

What’s the group’s opinion?

TIA, John

The trouble with 33 is that at best you'll get a coinflip and at worst you're a 4-1 underdog.

I'd lay it down.

[betgo]

You each have about 5xBB. I assume there is ante. If I am SB, I am pushing with any two. 33 is 54% against a random hand plus you are getting huge pot odds. I don't see the chances villain has a higher pair to be that great.

Even if your read is villain is such a fish that he needs a good and to push here, you still have to call.

I have posted this before, but I busted out of a tournament when I open pushed from the SB for 14xBB (some ante) with A4o and Gigabet called with K9o.

With 5xBB, I think you have to call with all but the worst junk hands.

[Solitare]

Another way to look at this would be to consider probable finishing places based on your action. It would help to have the full payout schedule, but we'll get by.

Folding, with your chip stack, you probably average 8th or 9th place.

Calling and losing, you go out in 10th.

Calling and winning, you might average something like 3rd or 4th place.

Even if we say calling gives you a 50/50 chance (which you are probably slightly better than), I would imagine that the EV of calling -- the average of 4th and 10th place prizes, is significantly greater than the 8th place prize (given a typically escalating payout schedule).

It's a call from a straight odds perspective -- 54% vs. a random hand when they pot allows for a 43% call. When you factor in the EV ramifications of an escalating prize payoff, it's a must call.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
It's a call from a straight odds perspective -- 54% vs. a random hand when they pot allows for a 43% call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume there is a relatively small ante, so the pot odds are more like 36%. This make it a chip EV+ pot odds call with any hand.

This is not even close. Without a read on the SB or a strong strategic reason not to gamble, I would call a SB push from the BB for any number of BBs.

[betgo]

You will see on TV sonetimes where pro in SB pushes and pro in BB calls, and neither of them looks at their cards. This is one of thise times.

call

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's a call from a straight odds perspective -- 54% vs. a random hand when they pot allows for a 43% call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume there is a relatively small ante, so the pot odds are more like 36%. This make it a chip EV+ pot odds call with any hand.

This is not even close. Without a read on the SB or a strong strategic reason not to gamble, I would call a SB push from the BB for any number of BBs.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly the type of feedback I was looking for...whether to gamble with such a modest pp where I'm at best a 54% favorite against the possibility of moving up significantly in the pay scale should I win the hand.

As I said, I folded this hand. I also went card dead afterwards and ended up taking 9th as predicted.

BTW - no antes at these tournaments...strictly blinds. That's another reason why I struggled with it.

Thanks all, John