Stats help requested

[manku]

I play a version of 5 card Omaha8 where you can play your full hand or standard version. You can use both to scoop (ie. dealt a wheel, can use two suited cards if a flush on board for high). The main difference is that you don't know what the "nuts" are usually, and often there is a low dealt, so high hands go down in value somewhat.

Onto last night's ugliness: I'm dealt A-5-9-9-K, suited ace. Not a powerhouse, but worth playing for a single bet. BTW, this is PL.

Flop: 2-4-J, giving me nut flush draw and wheel draw. SB, who is awful player, bets out $40. Three callers to me. I figure he may have a hand, but I must call here.

Turn: K, giving me my nut flush.

SB bets out $150. He has about $300 left. I have him covered.

Question: Are the odds better that he has a pat low, or a full house or higher? If I put him on a low, I'm virtually freerolling - of course a 2 or 4 could fill him up? However, a 3 would then give me 3/4 minimum. If he's going high, I have 16 outs for a split.

Of course, he calls with a full house and a rag falls on the river. It was that kind of night.

Had I not had the low backup draw, I probably would've folded. If he's dealt a high hand, he must have me beat. A low, and I'm splitting at best. My only hope would've been some sort of monster draw (set + low draw) - which I figured from his betting and body language was virtually impossible.

Manku

[Buzz]

"Question: Are the odds better that he has a pat low, or a full house or higher?"

Manku - Not considering the cards in your own hand, the number of ways a particular opponent could be dealt a five card pat 8-or-better low are:
32*28*24*20*16/120 = 57344.
By contrast, the number of ways a particular opponent could be dealt a pat five card full house or better (full house, quads, or straight flush) are 13*4*12*6 + 13*48 + 4*10 = 3744 + 624 + 40 = 4408

57344/4408 = about 13/1. Thus an opponent is about 13 times more likely to be dealt a pat low than a pat full house or better. Is that what you want to know?

Consideration of the cards you can see (in your hand and on the board) would change the exact number of ways a particular opponent could be dealt any of the above hands (and take me all night to figure out). But I’d expect the opponent with the pat hand would still be at least ten times more likely to be holding a pat low than a pat full house or better.

One of the players in my regular Friday night dealer’s choice game deals this game once in a while. I hate the damned game. When anyone can play all five cards in his hand as an alternative to two from his hand + three from the board, you never know when you’ll get blind sided by someone with a pat hand, as happened to you here. It doesn’t happen much, but it’s distinctly unpleasant when it does.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[manku]

I, too, hate this game. However, it is somewhat addictive when you get a monster. For instance, someone was once dealt a wheel toward the end of the session and took 5 people for ALL their chips - the biggest pot in the history of our game.

I've been dealt smooth 6's and quads, and been paid off.

However, being on the receiving end of a beat like this sure is ugly.

The question is: if you have a multiway draw to both high and low (nutz both ways), do you fold if you know (like i did here) that the opponent has a pat hand? Note: This applies to PL, as in limit it's a fairly easy call. Also, in my instance, this player paid off two $600 bets once with a queen high flush (in hand) when an ace high flush was on the board. This, obviously, made my decision even easier.

Thanks.

manku

PS. With very loose players who will routinely call big bets if they think they could possibly split the pot, what do you think is a better game to play: this one or 5 card Omaha8?

[iblucky4u2]

O/8 can be a cruel game when played with the 2 from hand 3 from board. If you add the option for all 5 cards in hand then it can get really whack.

Since O/8 is a game of the nuts, unless you have a wheel or royal flush, how can you ever be certain of a nut hand? You pay your money and take your chances. If you have players paying off $600 bets with hands that are obviously not the nuts, then this game will be addicting - as winning normally is [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]