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#81
09-02-2005, 01:06 PM
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Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
I think when you combine the three factors here, it becomes a good call...anyone or two alone and its a bad call.
Curtainz is known by Nick, 2+2er (could be any two) Folded to the button (this is obvious) Blinds are just juicy enough. Of course, Nick knows that curtains knows that Nick knows...so I dont think 97o wouldve done here. JTs can hold its own against against a wide range of calls. So my question is curtains, did you consider the cards here? ---edit---jesyus...just realized how old this thread was...who dug this up? Thought it looked familiar. 
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#82
09-02-2005, 01:14 PM
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Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
[ QUOTE ]
i dont like this call, even if i think yer pushing 70% of hands there. holla [/ QUOTE ] Does anyone else feel this is a pretty bad call? The best case scenario is if Villain is pushing K2-32, in which case Hero is way ahead. Anything else, Hero is either a marginal favorite (against any two random, live cards) or way behind (vs any pair, any Ax). This situation is too marginal for me to get involved in, and I'd rather push any two the next chance I get.
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#83
09-02-2005, 04:03 PM
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Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
[ QUOTE ]
Level of thinking: Nick knows curtains will be stealing with a huge range here. So he should call. Curtains knows that nick knows he will be stealing with a huge range here, so he tightens up his pushing standards. In turn, nick knows this and recongizes he needs a much higher calling requirement. Curtains knows this and goes back to loose pushing standards. It could go on forever.... [/ QUOTE ] Which is exactly why we say that ICM-based bubble strategy is unexploitable . . .
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#85
09-02-2005, 04:14 PM
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Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
[ QUOTE ]
He is getting 1505:805, or nearly 2:1. Against this range, he is only a 5% dog. Clear call. equity (%) win (%) / tie (%) Hand 1: 46.5513 % [ 00.42 00.04 ] { A2o } Hand 2: 53.4487 % [ 00.49 00.04 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K5s, QJs-Q7s, JTs-J8s, T9s, AKo-A2o, KQo-K5o, QJo-Q7o, JTo-J8o, T9o } [/ QUOTE ] Don't forget, this is for ALL his chips. That makes this a fold in my book. It's not like having odds of calling a 100 river bet.
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#86
09-02-2005, 04:15 PM
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Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
what hands dominate u?
ax? 65% pp? 70% suited connectors? 48.8% 2 random cards k-3? 41.2% only aa and pp really dominate...u are 2-1 against ax, but anything else (most hands) u are ahead of
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#87
09-02-2005, 04:16 PM
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Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
not all his chips
he'll still have 400
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#89
09-02-2005, 04:44 PM
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Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
I think you really have to take your opponent into account here and the caller knew Curtains would have a much wider range than average here.
I'm not saying that your reasoning is wrong, but your post reminded me of Gigabet's posts about gambler's ruin and how people fold too often when it is for all their chips. I had wondered how well that applied to STTs.
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#90
09-02-2005, 04:45 PM
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Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] He is getting 1505:805, or nearly 2:1. Against this range, he is only a 5% dog. Clear call. equity (%) win (%) / tie (%) Hand 1: 46.5513 % [ 00.42 00.04 ] { A2o } Hand 2: 53.4487 % [ 00.49 00.04 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K5s, QJs-Q7s, JTs-J8s, T9s, AKo-A2o, KQo-K5o, QJo-Q7o, JTo-J8o, T9o } [/ QUOTE ] Don't forget, this is for ALL his chips. That makes this a fold in my book. It's not like having odds of calling a 100 river bet. [/ QUOTE ] Yea, getting 1.6-1 on the call, being a 1.2-1 dog against the average hands. Yea, wonderful fold. Not even considering that you will still have 400 in chips left if you happen to lose. The argument for folding is that you can just get those chips back next hand by pushing from the sb. I would say that the chances of getting it folded to me in the sb would be about 25% and the chances that I would have a hand that I would want to push would be about 40%, therefore by folding this hand where I might be a favorite I am [censored] myself. Here is an experiment for sng players to try. When you think you have the best hand push or call, and when you don't fold. Instead of folding favorites until you are so desperate that you need to push two [censored] cards.
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