1/2 6max. - turned set completes FD

vanHelsing · #1 10-08-2005, 04:32 AM

~200 hands against villain.
She is LAG (somwhere around 80/25/3), a bit tricky and a bit of a calling station.
She sees me as TAG, she knows I raise a lot of hands in late position and that I am almost always auto-C-betting when HU.
I have seen her CR a baby FD once all-in with a 60BB stack. I can't remember ever having seen a massive overbet from her.

To the hand:
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 4 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

SB ($287.25)
BB ($137.85)
UTG ($177.30)
Hero ($194)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $1.
UTG calls $2, Hero raises to $10, 2 folds, UTG calls $8.

Flop: ($23) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $16, UTG calls $16.

Turn: ($55) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: ($55) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG calls $151.30 (All-In), Hero?

How is my turn check behind?
Fold the river?

EDIT: btw, I'll stack her 100% of the times, when the board pairs and she has a flush.

soah · #2 10-08-2005, 05:09 AM

Very easy turn bet.

TreyOfLight · #3 10-08-2005, 05:17 AM

I don't see a case for calling the river. You have little invested, are getting a bad price on a call and beating only a bluff.

You don't know if she's betting because she has the flush, or because you handed over the betting lead on fourth. I would bet the turn, to keep pressure on hands I still beat.

trumpman84 · #4 10-08-2005, 07:11 AM

My first thought was to fold because what is a normal person going to call you with on this flop, then overbet the river. This is suicide for just a pair of kings, and there are no other missed draws so she almost has to have a flush. Then I saw that you had her read as a lag, so that might turn this into a call. A LAG might do this with air if she thinks you cotinuation bet too much especially after showing weakness on the turn . I've even seen, heaven forbid, aces played like this. Still, a close decision, you have to be right about 75% of the time to be a profitable decision so you have to put her on a bluff a good percentage of the time, but that's what LAGS do..they overplay hands and bluff, so it's not unreasonable to think this is a call.

EDIT: A set of 2's or 6's could also be played this way because she can be reasonably sure you do not have a flush.

vanHelsing · #5 10-08-2005, 07:25 AM

Good thoughts, but she is not that tricky to push this one on air. She definetly likes her hand. I'd say this is at least a set...

emil3000 · #6 10-08-2005, 07:57 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Very easy turn bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
Explain why? I thought this was a pretty good turn check. Makes about the same money against one pair, lose some against two pair probably, although this player might move two pair here with a frequency that makes it tough whether to call or not. Obv. good check against a flush. What range do you give villain against which this is a good bet?

emil3000 · #7 10-08-2005, 07:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Very easy turn bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
Explain why? I thought this was a pretty good turn check. Makes about the same money against one pair, lose some against two pair probably, although this player might move two pair here with a frequency that makes it tough whether to call or not. Obv. good check against a flush. What range do you give villain against which this is a good bet?

EDIT: Obv. the one heart hands should pay. But it's somewhat similar there, they might move in too, and if you don't know how often they do so, it's tough to know whether to call or not. So it's not all advantages.

TreyOfLight · #8 10-08-2005, 09:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]
What range do you give villain against which this is a good bet?

[/ QUOTE ]A wide one: she is a loose calling station, after all. No way does she have the flush often enough to warrant a check.

soah · #9 10-08-2005, 10:32 AM

Because it's highly likely that your hand is good, and 10 cards on the river will either cost you the pot or cost you action.

dvo352 · #10 10-08-2005, 11:37 AM

I think you should have bet the turn. It was an easy bet like Soah said. You have 2 advantages there. You can bluff the flush if she doesn't have it and you still have outs even if the bet is called. In the case of a reraise shove then you fold. You checking after her told her that you didnt have the flush. If shes a lag and she likes to bet then you basicly gave up the pot if the board didn't pair. Good fold on the river though. Theres no reason to gamble there. Knowing that she knows you don't have the flush might warrant a call since she can be betting with anything but you just don't know where you stand. Too many hands beat you. Hell she could have hit that gutshot with the 7.