Fold AA preflop

[Daliman]

Yep, play em. Definite high expected value, especially considering the other small stacks will likely fold since you might get beat by big stack. If you lose, you lose, that's life.

[JNash]

For those who want to sse my logic for why I think you'd fold AA here, highlight the text below...

Option 1: Play the AA.
• In terms of bet-size, you might as well go all-in. If the maniac will call at all, he’ll call an all-in just as much as a smaller bet—might as well get maximum chip-EV out of it.
• In all likelihood, you’ll wind up heads up against the maniac (the 2 small stacks would be idiots to get involved since they can only benefit from #2 stack going heads-up against chip leader).
• In terms of $EV, what can you expect? AA vs. random cards is only about 4:1. That means you will go bust about 20% of the time, and wind up with 3900 chips 80% of time (300 from the blinds, your 1800 allin and his call)
• With 3900 chips, you’re pretty well assured of finishing at least second—i.e. you get at least $60.
• If you win, the chip-leader will have lost 1800 and will be down to 4900.
• A reasonably good approximation of how often you’ll come in first is the size of your stack vs. that of the chip leader, i.e. 3900/(3900+4900)=44%. That means you’ll win the extra $40 about 44% of the time—an EV of $17.6
• Thus the overall EV of playing the AA is about $77.6 if you win (prob. 80%) and $0 if you bust (prob 20%). Total EV is $62.1
• Note that your EV from playing the AA is just barely bigger than $60—the payout for 2nd place.

Option 2: Sit out the hand
• Avoid playing any hand against Mr. Big Stack, but play a normally aggressive game against the two short stacks (e.g. steal blinds, etc.)
• You are very likely to hang in there longer than the two short stacks. Once there are only 2 players left, you are assured of finishing at least second.
• Question is, how many chips will you have left when they bust out? I would argue that your most likely chip count will still be 1800 (depending on the cards, it could be higher if you can win some from the 2 short stacks, or lower if you have to give up a few blinds. A priori, I would think 1800-your current count--is most likely).
• This would give you an 18% chance of coming in first—in which case you’ll make an extra $40 (an EV of $7.2).
• The total EV of sitting out is $67.2.

By my math, you have a higher EV from sitting out than from playing the AA.

A different way of looking at this is that if you double up, you increase your chance of finishing #1 from small to modest. Your probability of AA holding up is about 80%, and if they do it’s worth about (44%-18%)*$40, so the EV pickup from improving your chances of finishing first is $8.3.

You have to weigh that against the probability of busting out, which means giving up $67 (the virtually assured $60 plus the slim chance of finishing first) about 20% of the time—an EV give-up of $13.4. The net is a difference of $5.1 in favor of NOT playing the AA.

Increasing your chances of coming in #1 isn’t always the most important thing—it depends on how steeply the payout structure increases for the final places. <font color="white"> </font> <font color="white"> </font>

[JNash]

See math below for this 50/30/20 payout

[Pepsquad]

Do you play at PP Nash? What's your name?

[JNash]

I see that once again most people seem to focus on the wrong thing...It makes a HUGE difference in this situation whether you play AA vs. the chip-leader or vs. the shor stacks.

[pistol78]

It doesnt matter. If you dont play AA against the big stack then what do you play?

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
The total EV of sitting out is $67.2.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're way, way, way, way overestimating your EV of sitting out. You're basically assuming you'll finish 2nd at worst...

...but by your strategy, you will fold every hand UTG, or every hand the big stack enters first (which any big stack in their right mind will do almost every hand to exploit this bubble situation) - and he's to your immediate right, so he's either in the BB or acting before you on every hand. You will often get chipped down significantly before getting in the money (meaning very few 1sts, a lot of 3rds (short stacks do make comebacks quite often), and you will finish 4th a percentage of the time playing this way as well)...

...and AA wins 85% of the time against a random hand...

It sounds like you're trying very hard to tweak your assumptions in favor of your desired conclusion. You can get away with that fine in the classroom, but when it comes to playing thousands of SNGs, those incorrect assumptions leading to -EV plays like this will come back to bite you in the arse for mucho $$...

...maybe there's a reason everyone is saying play AA here...

[hhboy77]

irieguy. i think there is a time that you could fold aa preflop in an sng, but it would have to be very extreme.

for example 4-handed, you pick up aa on the button and have 1 chip left. cutoff, who has 9799 chips moves all in on the two blinds who have 100 chips each and are all in.

clearly, this is a fold because the only place you are playing for is 2nd, at least until the other two bust out.

[ChrisV]

Your reasoning of fold EV is wrong because: (1) You don't take into account the chances of coming 3rd (or even 4th) (2) How is your stack still going to be 1800 chips when you're folding every hand for fear of tangling wth the big stack?

[stlip]

AA wins 85 percent of the time against a random hand -- you're closer to a 6-1 favorite than 4-1.

You didn't give any weight to the possibility of one short stack taking out the other and getting some chips from the maniac in the process and then pushing you down to 3rd.

What your statistical argument shows is that the final positions are so close to being set in concrete that no play you make with an AA -- no matter how dumb -- is going to have a huge statistical impact on the final outcome.