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#1
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The Master Plan
Well, it's tough to make the right decision when your ass is on the line (and maybe that's why I'm still up @ 5 in the morning), so I thought I'd ask you guys for some advice...
I'll save you from the stupid details and go straight to the relevant info. My goal for the next 2 months is to make ~$6000 playing poker. There's just one big caveat to my goal: my starting BR is $260. I'm OK w/ 4-tabling, have ~1600 STTs played @ PP. Assuming that I can hit 30% ROI @ the $6s, 20% ROI @ the $11s and a 15% ROI @ the $22s (I have no idea how I'd run @ the $33s & $55s, I have very little tournies played at those levels), what would be your plan? Would you try 8-tabling in the middle of all this? I did some very bad BR management in the past, and if there's something I learned from my own stupid mistakes is not to move up before having 50BI for the next level. I'm gonna start by 4-tabling the $6s @ Empire to get rakeback and I have a plan for the rest, but I really would like to know what would you do if you were in my shoes. Thanks. |
#2
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Re: The Master Plan
If I were in your shoes, I'd just start at the 11s right away. But feeling comfortable with your bankroll is important, so move up when you are ready. By your ROI and bankroll numbers, we have:
6*(162 games)*(.3 ROI) = $290 profit 11*(250 games)*(.2 ROI) = $550 profit 22*(1485 games)*(.15 ROI) = $4900 profit So to hit $6000, if you go straight by the averages, you'll play 1896 games. Over 2 months, that's about 31-32 games per day. |
#3
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Re: The Master Plan
[ QUOTE ]
31-32 games per day [/ QUOTE ] I think he'll need more than that, and there's no way I could do this playing every day. (actually, there's no way I could do this. period. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]) One other thing that the OP should maybe consider is allowing himself to more aggressively move up in stakes. ROR would still be very very low if he drops down in the face of a bad swing. At very least, I might take my second thousand of profit and allocate that towards an independent 'move up' bankroll this gives 30 buy-ins at the 33s. If you lose it, whatever, you are playing a lot of SNGs anyways. 7000 is a lot like 6000. If you win with it though! This all gets so much easier. Regards Brad S |
#4
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Re: The Master Plan
i'd stay at the 6's till the BR hit $400. then i'd 4-8 table the 11's, and jump to the 22's at a $700 to $800 BR.
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#5
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Re: The Master Plan
[ QUOTE ]
i'd stay at the 6's till the BR hit $400. then i'd 4-8 table the 11's, and jump to the 22's at a $700 to $800 BR. [/ QUOTE ] sounds good But I wouldn't play at Empire - not even if they gave me 50% rakeback. |
#6
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Re: The Master Plan
[ QUOTE ]
But I wouldn't play at Empire - not even if they gave me 50% rakeback. [/ QUOTE ] why not? |
#7
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Re: The Master Plan
[ QUOTE ]
My goal for the next 2 months is to make ~$6000 playing poker. There's just one big caveat to my goal: my starting BR is $260. I'm OK w/ 4-tabling, have ~1600 STTs played @ PP. [/ QUOTE ] What can I say? Plan to play a lot of SNGs. [ QUOTE ] Assuming that I can hit 30% ROI @ the $6s, 20% ROI @ the $11s and a 15% ROI @ the $22s [/ QUOTE ] I would also not assume any of this, especially if this is based on past stats over: [ QUOTE ] ~1600 STTs played @ PP. [/ QUOTE ] I don't know how long it took to get that last 1600, but if it was any more than 1 month, expect the grind to hurt your future results. You are basically planning to play way more than that in the next two months and it is gonna suck. I also wouldn't assume this if you are planning on playing empire much. I'd also probably start at the 10s, even with only 260 If forced, I'd bet against you succeeding. Still, good luck. Regards Brad S |
#8
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Re: The Master Plan
30 tournies a day as an average for the next 2 months would probably drive me insane. I'm more than comfortable with 20 / day (including breaks, days that life is more important than poker, etc).
I can play 40 tournies a day for about a week and after that I start really feeling the grind. I think 1200 tournies is a realistic number for 2 months. |
#9
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Re: The Master Plan
[ QUOTE ]
30 tournies a day as an average for the next 2 months would probably drive me insane. I'm more than comfortable with 20 / day (including breaks, days that life is more important than poker, etc). I can play 40 tournies a day for about a week and after that I start really feeling the grind. I think 1200 tournies is a realistic number for 2 months. [/ QUOTE ] Then you'll need to move higher than the $22s -- even playing 1200 22s, with nothing lower, you're looking at less than $4000 profit. I'm going to assume right up front that you really need $6000 in 2 months, and that that's non-negotiable. I really think your best plan would be to re-check whether that's really the case, because it's a long shot and you'll quite possibly hate poker after what it takes to get there. I think your second-best plan would be to commit yourself to more than 1200 tournaments, because if you stick to that, you're going to have to take more risk than you're comfortable with to get to your goal. That said: I'd start at the $11s if I were you -- to have any significant chance of making this goal, you're going to need to move up quickly and perhaps accept a bit higher ROR than you might otherwise be comfortable with. Starting at the 6s subjects you to higher rake and is taking up time where you'd probably be more profitable at the 11s. You've still got 24 buyins, which gives you a pretty low ROR if your $11 ROI is really 20%. Similarly, you're going to have to move up again at what might be an uncomfortably low BR for the $22s and then the $33s. I'd play at $11s until you hit 30 $22 buyins, $22s until you have 40 $33 buyins, and if you make it, $55s once you reach 60 buyins for that level. That's 182 $11s and 200 $22s to get to the $33s. Assuming you can maintain a 12% ROI at the 33s (if you can't, stick with your 15% at the 22s), that's 496 more at the 33s, with you at $3300. If you can shift up to the $55s at 8% (probably optimistic, but again, if you can't do this, stick with the lower level, you're making more money), you'd need 614 more tournaments to hit $6000. That's a total of 1492 tournaments to $6000, about 25/day, using very optimistic assumptions about your ROI as you move up and taking you to levels you're probably not comfortable with at a speed you're probably even less comfortable with. But unless you do all of those things, you have, frankly, no shot to make your goal barring an incredible heater. You might improve your chances somewhat by increasing your number of tables; I'd recommend not jumping straight from 4 to 8, but you do want to start in on increasing tables from day one so that you can drop back to a more comfortable number when you move up in buy-in without throwing yourself too far off course of your goal. But I'll repeat what I said at the beginning -- your wisest course, IMO, is to re-evaluate your goal. |
#10
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Re: The Master Plan
Is there a reason you need $6k in two months? If not, I say avoid 8 tabling until you can at least beat the 33s consistently 4 or less tabling. What you'll miss in $ in the next few months will be more than made up for by the $ you make later when you get to the 109s sooner since you learned the game better.
That was a horrible run-on sentence, but I like it, so that's what you get. |
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