Bluff raising is cool

SNOWBALL138 · #1 11-29-2005, 10:45 AM

I'm pretty sure villain is a TAG. No stats so far.

Anyone fold the turn?
I didn't put villain on a made flush b/c of the flop action.

I raised the river because I felt that it was about 3:1 against villain having a heart. (Both the K and Q of hearts are out.) After villain bet, the odds of villain having a heart went up though, but the timing of villain's bet gave me a feeling that he hated the river but didn't want to checkfold.

What do you think? Was I spewing? Bluffing with the best hand? I wasn't steaming or anything at the time. It just felt like the right thing to do.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Snowball is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
6 folds, SB completes, Snowball raises, SB calls.

Flop: (4 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Snowball bets, SB calls.

Turn: (3 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Snowball bets, SB raises, Snowball calls.

River: (7 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Snowball raises ...

crunchy1 · #2 11-29-2005, 10:50 AM

I think what you really need to be asking yourself here is: Where is the value in your river raise?

(i.e. What do you think he's calling with that you beat or folding that has you beat enough of the time to make this raise profitable?)

SNOWBALL138 · #3 11-29-2005, 10:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think what you really need to be asking yourself here is: Where is the value in your river raise?

(i.e. What do you think he's calling with that you beat or folding that has you beat enough of the time to make this raise profitable?)

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he's folding trip queens w/ no heart more than half the time. His trip queens have no heart more than 3/4 of the time.

belloc · #4 11-29-2005, 10:58 AM

I know that if I'm the villain here, and I turned a baby flush, I have a hard time calling a river raise when that fourth heart hits on 5th street, but I'm a nit.

But if I'm you here, I guess I'd want to have a pretty good reason for thinking this guy will fold to my river raise here. If I've seen him lay down hands to aggression, then I might pull the trigger.

But this is 2/4, and in my experience I just don't see opponents making big laydowns for one more bet on the end here. At 5/10-sh, maybe I'd pop him again on the turn if I think he's getting frisky with that scare card. It's really read dependent, though. I know some players that I play against live, where I'm folding to the turn raise, some players where I'm three betting that turn, some where I might bluff raise the river like you did.

Again though, absent reads, I'm not sure this play is going to take down the pot all that often here.

#5 11-29-2005, 11:04 AM

I just don't see someone laying down trip queens or a baby flush or a straight enough to make this raise worth it. They may sigh when they hit the call button, but they're still calling.

Getting 3 bet on the river sucks pretty bad too.

SNOWBALL138 · #6 11-29-2005, 11:06 AM

I don't put him on a made flush on the turn, because I think he could have checkraised the flop with a flushdraw or at least led at it, so I think he has a K or a Q. Both the K and Q of hearts are out, so his kicker is a heart less than 25% of the time. I don't put him on a F/H, again b/c of the flop play (he would have had to have 2 pair or a set on the flop). I don't think villain is aggressive enough to C/R the turn with the naked ace of hearts either.

I didn't say I didn't have a read. I just said I didn't have stats. I think villain was a tag, and maybe a 2+2er. Tight preflop, aggressive after the flop. Didn't always go to showdown. Didn't cold call preflop. Stuff like that.

SNOWBALL138 · #7 11-29-2005, 11:12 AM

getting 3 bet on the river doesn't suck at all... it would suck if I had the naked 9 of hearts, but not when I have an ez laydown.

My river raise has to work 1/4 of the time to break even 8bb:2bb
I think he's laying down no heart about half the time, and I think he has no heart about 2/3-3/4ths of the time. So that means he's folding between 1/3 and 3/8ths of the time, which is more than 1/4th. Also, sometimes (maybe less than 5 percent of the time?) he folds a small heart.

crunchy1 · #8 11-29-2005, 11:33 AM

It seems like you're really limiting his range in your mind to justify your play.

If he is a TAG 2+2er what is his open-limping range in the SB against you? If he's decent why is he limping? Limping would seem to indicate that he's got a monster looking to get some action by slowplaying. OTOH, maybe he's not as bright as you thought and he's limping some marginal garbage when he should've been taking a shot to steal your blind.

Consider how he played his hand - waiting until the turn to checkraise and then leading a river card that should be just as scary to you as it is him. Consider that this is a HU situation from before the flop.

toss · #9 11-29-2005, 11:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]

I think he's folding trip queens w/ no heart more than half the time. His trip queens have no heart more than 3/4 of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I find that most players at Party have a hard time folding trips for one more bet on the river even though theres 4 hearts on the board. You also have to worry about an actualy flush and a boat.

SNOWBALL138 · #10 11-29-2005, 11:44 AM

sorry. I said he only needs to fold 1/4th of the time. I am wrong. He only needs to fold 1/5th of the time.