What do you make of this?

Bradyams · #1 07-12-2005, 01:43 PM

What do you make of MP's (LAG) river bet? I find it highly unlikely that the 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] helped him, but he's saying it did.

The reason I ask is because I've been seeing this a lot lately. Mostly from loose/passives, but sometimes LAGs. Obviously my hand is strong, so when someone does this to you, do you pop them back, or just call it? I decided I didn't know, and I went for the overcall from the loose/passive SB since I was uncertain of MP's holding.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Brady is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP calls, CO calls, Brady raises, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG calls, MP calls, CO calls.

Flop: (11 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, CO checks, Brady bets, SB calls, UTG calls, MP calls, CO folds.

Turn: (7.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, Brady bets, SB calls, UTG folds, MP calls.

River: (10.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, MP bets, Brady calls, SB folds.

Final Pot: 12.50 BB

davelin · #2 07-12-2005, 01:47 PM

T9o or 88 could be a possibility. With a LAG read, you could pop it back. I think calling against your typical passive opponent is fine.

aces_dad · #3 07-12-2005, 01:51 PM

I agree, when it's a LAG, I like to pop back depending upon the strength of the read. With a passive I just call and watch him flip the gut-shot.

MrWookie47 · #4 07-12-2005, 01:55 PM

I probably pop him back. I'd expect a str8 to check/raise you, but with some players, who knows. I am always quick to note whatever donkbets mean.

kapw7 · #5 07-12-2005, 02:00 PM

This is a raise for me. I doubt that SB will overcall, he was probably drawing to a flush. I very much doubt that MP was calling all the way with 69 (but you might have a better read-and a LAG would love to C-R you with a straight) and anyway it is a less likely holding than say any pair that he wants to bluff with on the river after there are no flushes and the 2 Jacks on the board reduce the possibility of someone having the third. And I am sure he is going to call your raise most times b/c "it's only 2 dollars" and he wants to keep you honest.

Watain · #6 07-12-2005, 02:18 PM

Why the raise preflop?

- It´s a drawing hand, and it can´t be played strongly with confidence if a low-ragged flop hits. Furthermore, if a flush or straight draw hits, it will be harder to value bet since the properbility that you might scare someone out due to the pre-flop raise is higher.

Is this making sense?

---

I have also seen a lot of river bluffing lately on party poker. But this is a toughy. I would tend to call, but i have no idea whether it is + or - EV to do so. A better read might do the trick...

/Torben

Bradyams · #7 07-12-2005, 02:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why the raise preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's an easy value raise in my opinion. These donks are limping with AX, KX, QX, JX, anything suited, and anything connected. Sometimes anything at all. My hand will play well in this large field, and I should expect to be winning more than my share of pots.

Disconnected · #8 07-12-2005, 02:22 PM

In general, I think it's fine to try for the LP's overcall, but on this particular board, there's a pretty narrow range of hands that SB would call with that you beat. If MP is a LAG, he's only beating you with the rivered straight, since he would have raised a better jack pre-flop.

Since I would figure him to check-raise the straight (unless you've been really aggressive yourself so far, and he figures you'll raise his bet), he may be hoping you've been bluffing and he could pick up the pot with a river bet. Maybe he has an 8, or some other weaker hand and is taking a bet/fold line. I'd raise in this spot, but I do think it's OK sometimes to take your line.

imported_The Vibesman · #9 07-12-2005, 02:32 PM

I'd just call. I don't see anything you beat here except the bluff or 8-9.
I've been seeing this river bluff a bit myself, I never lay down to it. Problem is I've also been seeing donkbets from the classic "He'd checkraise that, wouldn't he?" hands. Honestly I'll do it myself to aggressive players, because I know they won't buy it and pop me. If I checkraise they give me credit for the monster, but leading in they say, no way, and pop it, I get to 3bet. SO that makes me a bit less inclined to raise a strange bet with a draw on the board. I've recently missed a bet or two on the river due to this, am planning on posting a few of the hands when I have time to pull them from my history.

droolie · #10 07-12-2005, 02:40 PM

Pop him. Many players do this on the river with weak but showdownable hands. Their thinking seems to be, "If I'm going to call a bet I might as well bet myself," or sometimes possibly, "I'm not letting him showdown his hand for free," if they think you might check behind with just overcards. Sometimes it's a sign of real improvement so be careful. If you're 3-bet you can worry about the str8 and call.