semibluff or fold?

[wheelz]

yeah yeah i called. i was hoping the semibluff option would get more support though.

i agree that the flop check/turn raise doesn't look too believable, which is a major detriment to the line. the pot is still so small though that i think he might find a fold anyway. to the same extent though: doesn't the flop check, turn call, then river bet if checked to look a lot like a missed draw so that he calls the river with ace high? if i am against an ace-highish hand, putting in the turn raise is probably better than calling the turn and betting the river if checked to. of course, i don't know that he really doesn't have qq or something. really though, of all the times (i know there aren't many) that you've seen someone raise preflop then check the flop out of position heads up (in a blind war no less) how often have they actually had a big hand? i've seen more missed hands than big ones, maybe it's just me.

[ISF]

I agree that if you know he has specifically an a high a turn raise is better, but this betting pattern is more likely to be either complete crap that decided to mix it up by checking or a monster. Against either of these two hands I would rather call. If it is a monster you have the implied odds to call, and will be really punished if you raise, and the complete garbage will often check fold the river.

[Surfbullet]

I like your analysis Wheelz, and I've seen lots of legitimate giving up in this situation. People raise so light in a blind war that i've seen more checks indicating weakness than indicating monsters lately.

You can usually peg the guy who is going to check a monster. He raises weak hands or draws, and slowplays big hands habitually. When it seems uncharacteristic, it probably is.

Surf

[wheelz]

but what if he'd play monster, garbage, or ace high this way? doesn't that make the turn a raise? there's certainly more combos of garbage/ace high than there is monsters as well.

it's not like i'm losing a ton if he does have a hand he calls down with either. i'm done if i don't improve, and i've at least got nice implied odds going for me.

[Alobar]

reading the posts, I like the call turn,bet river if checked to line.

Also like you said, your turn raise looks kind of fishy, so I think its more apt to make him call down with ace high, where if you call the turn ina small pot and then bet the river, I think since the pot is so small hes more inclined to believe its a weak made hand (vs. busted draw) and just fold his ace.

[B Dids]

This is like the least visable double gutter ever.

I call the turn.

[wheelz]

i called the turn. river was a total blank, he checked, i bet, he instacalled with ace high. [censored].

raising the turn i guess is the second best line, but i don't think it's that far behind.