semibluff or fold?

[gildwulf]

Even raising you're putting 2BB in to win 2BB, possibly 3. The pot is just too small, man to take this kind of risk...I really think raising here would be spewing.

[wheelz]

i don't really think he has something he calls a raise with that often. i just think most players know enough to bet flops when they flop something. of course by that logic, i have to worry that he knows that i know that he's supposed to bet... i'm just sick of giving away pots every time someone raises then checks the flop.

[gildwulf]

He doesn't have to have something big enough to call a raise with but the pot isn't big enough to find out. If you had more outs this would be a great semibluff (say you had 6 of spades and 3 of spades) but unfortunately you don't. Also you only really have 6 clean outs.

[cartman]

[ QUOTE ]
This looks like a very clear fold to me, which means I must be missing something of you wouldn't have posted it. The pot is extremely small. If you had a read that he checks the flop when it misses him after raising preflop then it might be different.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, like the fact that you have a double gutshot. What a moron I am. I withdrawal everything I said before. Now there is no way I fold getting an immediate 3 to 1. I value your hand at at least 10 outs. The only question is whether to raise or to call. If you see plenty of legitimate checking in that game then I would probably raise. If you think he is capable of check-folding the river here then I would just call and bluff the river if checked to on the river unimproved.

Cartman

[gildwulf]

Where the (*&amp(*) did you get 10 outs?

[wheelz]

come on people, i said semibluff!

[cartman]

I think there is no chance sb has a spade draw. I think based on wheelz comment that he sees plenty of legitimate checking on the flop by preflop raiser that it is quite possible that his pair outs are good also. So I count the non-heart 4's and 8's as full outs (6 so far). I count the 4 and 8 of hearts at at least a half out each (7 so far). I count the 6's and 3's as half an out each because of the chance that he slowplayed a big pair or better on the flop and that brings me to 10. I think that may even be a conservative estimate.

Am I crazy?

Cartman

[wheelz]

[ QUOTE ]
Even raising you're putting 2BB in to win 2BB

[/ QUOTE ]

it's actually 2 to win 3.

i guess calling is looking more appealing to me.

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Even raising you're putting 2BB in to win 2BB

[/ QUOTE ]

it's actually 2 to win 3.

i guess calling is looking more appealing to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

He'll be hard-pressed to bet the river with no pair once you call the turn in a microscopic pot. IMO you'll often pick the pot up when he checks the river with a bet, since he won't have odds to call with A-hi.

Surf

[ISF]

I actually think a call is allright here. If he rally has nothing often you can pick it up with a river bet if you dont hit. I actually think as your raise looks really fish after the turn check through that a good percentage of that hands that would fold to a turn raise will check fold this river. So between the double gutshot, possible pair outs, + chance for a river check fold + meta game I think a call is fine here.