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#12
11-23-2005, 10:07 AM
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Re: if you thought c/r, c/c, c/c was weak...
If he 3-bets preflop with 88+, KJs+, KQ, ATs+, AJ+, then assuming a blank river fell, we would be behind 54 combos of pretty reasonably played high cards, QQ, KK, and AA. We are ahead of 88,99,TT,JJ, which have 24 combos. For us to be ahead on the river if he bets a blank, the combos which we area ahead of have to end up being 6 (so that we win 6 outa 60, or 1 in 10). That means he to play his underpairs the way he did at least 25% of the time he has them. I donīt think this is the case, even against some pretty crazy opponents.
Therefore I think if you are calling the turn, you can still fold to a blank river. As for calling the turn, if we assume that the higher underpairs (TT, JJ) bet about 50% of the time, and the lower ones bet maybe 25% of the time, we have 9 combos of hands that we are currently ahead of if they bet. This is assuming that these hands raised the flop, which a bunch of them didnīt. So in reality, they have even less combos of these hands. Considering we improve against some of the hands that are ahead of us sometimes, and that usually the hands that are behind us will give up, I think a turn call might be ok if you expect our opponent to be betting his underpairs this often. That is a decision of judgement though. I think there are plenty of opponents who will not ever bet these underpairs, or who will rarely do so. Against these, a turn fold is a must. If there is some significant chance that they might bet these hands, then you can call the turn, and fold the river UI. 
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#13
11-23-2005, 10:12 AM
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Re: if you thought c/r, c/c, c/c was weak...
well, this hand is done. he actually checked behind the river with 77 and MHIG, but my plan was fold to a river bet. but then it never happened so i guess i wasn't prepared to answer river questions...
i don't know that he'd bet JJ or QQ that often on the turn though with the gutshot.
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#14
11-23-2005, 10:19 AM
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Re: if you thought c/r, c/c, c/c was weak...
Isn't this hand easier to play if you just bet the turn?
Sure, we get value by inducing a bluff, but we lose value when our play leads to a really awful fold. The only problem with bettin the turn is if he is capable of bluff-raising the ace turn with a weaker hand.
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#15
11-23-2005, 10:26 AM
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Re: if you thought c/r, c/c, c/c was weak...
i think he is capable of bluff raising the turn, so whether i make a bad fold on the turn to his bluff raise or on the river to his follow through, i lose 1 BB (and the pot) either way. this way the chances of getting bluffed are lower, and if he has a PP hopefully i induce one bluff.
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#16
11-23-2005, 10:45 AM
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Re: if you thought c/r, c/c, c/c was weak...
[ QUOTE ]
i think he is capable of bluff raising the turn, so whether i make a bad fold on the turn to his bluff raise or on the river to his follow through, i lose 1 BB (and the pot) either way. this way the chances of getting bluffed are lower, and if he has a PP hopefully i induce one bluff. [/ QUOTE ] I like this lean. It feels soooooo weak, but I think it's best in this situation. This board is dangerous enough to keep a TAG honest on the river IMO. Surf
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#17
11-23-2005, 11:12 AM
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Re: if you thought c/r, c/c, c/c was weak...
I've actually bet 99-JJ on the turn and river with exactly that plan in mind from TAGs I know who'll fold their pair to the river bet. I don't mind the plan of folding to the river bet, but I'm never very sure that I like it. Apart form the J falling on the river.
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