blind battle

[mikeyworm]

Check/Fold. Whenever I start calling these I hate that I always lose to a flopped bottom pair. I bet he checks behind with almost everything though.

[rory]

I think I instantly check-call the river. The 7 is a great card for you-- any draws he could have had missed. If he had some sort of gutshot and picked up a flush draw or something on the turn, he also missed. He may be more likely to bluff a busted draw with the 7 hitting, because it looks scary to you. He won't bet K high here and he also might not bet a small pair, fearing that you have a pair but are scared of the board pairing.

My guess was that he had either a 4 (which he might not bet) a busted draw or a 7 on the flop. The 7 makes it a lot less likely he has a 7 and also that he will bet a 4. I think you will see a hand like T6 or maybe 59 or like any overcard+gutshot combo with two diamonds, possibly two hearts he decided not to raise and that sort of thing way more than 1:6 times to make the river call pretty easy. I can't see him really having a K here too often, unless he has a suited king of hearts or diamonds with some card in the gutshot range on the flop. So betting is totally wrong-- I think I saw some responses saying bet.

[sthief09]

I'm not convinced either though. on one hand, no draws got there, but on the other I feel like most people put in a raise with a draw somewhere. that's not necessarily true though. I didn't see the 7 paired though. that's good and bad. it's good because it's less likely he has a pair but it's bad because it's one more hand he will value bet, making picking off a bluff harder.

[wheelz]

i thought most people would put in a raise with a 7 or 8 on the flop too though?

i think i'm with rory here. everyone saying he probably checks behind with his weak hands like a 4 or K high is right, that's why it's harder to fold. if he's checking behind those hands what is he betting? it sure looks like i'm giving up on this hand after i check, so i think he's going to bluff at this quite often. it's hard to put him on anything after he just calls the whole way, but the board is quite drawy so i think he might have some weird hand that missed often enough to call here getting 6:1.

[rory]

So, what's the right river play if you have a bad 8 or a good 4?

[wheelz]

well my kicker wouldn't play...?

i guess the answer is check-call both? i don't see the point in betting if i have a 4, and i think he probably has a busted draw more often than a 4, so not much point in betting the 8 either.

[rory]

i guess my point is that a bad 8 or a 4 is pretty much the same hand as QJ in this spot, and you would never check-fold a bad 8 or a 4, so you should never fold QJ either.

[wheelz]

yeah, i think you're right rory. this should be a check-call.

and just so it doesn't look like i'm being results oriented villain won with 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].