Lies, damn lies, and statistics

[t_perkin]

I posted because the post I replied to suggested that a "bad run" could be fixed by adjusting ones game.
This suggests that by playing better you can avoid all bad runs. This is not the case.

Most posters on this forum, when they say they are having a "bad run" they mean a bad run of cards, not just playing badly.

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So, when I hit a bad streak, I look at my game first and make sure that I am not slipping in one way or another


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You should be analysing your game all the time, not just when you are running badly.

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The problem I have with relying mainly on stats is that you might overlook your weakness, and blame it on the cards.


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Stats don't lie. If you misinterpret them then that is a problem.
Nobody pretends that (ROI, RoR and ITM%) stats tell you *why* you are losing/winning, only whether you are or not.
They also tell you how likely it is for something to occur. If you play 250+ SNGs a week then you are likely to see long losing streaks. Understanding the statistics gives you the confidence NOT to tinker with your game when there is nothing wrong with it.

It is just an important part of understanding the game of poker.

Tim

[Irieguy]

"understanding statistics gives you the confidence to NOT tinker with your game when there is nothing wrong."

Tim, I think that's the most profound comment in this thread so far. The hard part is managing the information while you are accumulating a large enough sample to gain your confidence.

I think it's clear that you need several hundred SNGs before you "know," statistically, how well you are doing. But I think you can figure out whether or not you are winning much sooner than that. Do you usually have the best hand when significant portions of your stack go into the pot? If the answer is yes, then you are winning. You are winning even more if the few times your money goes in with the lesser hand you were there first and there was a significant chance that your opponnent would fold a better hand. (By the way, I'm pretty sure you can beat SNGs without ever bluffing. You can just beat them more by bluffing appropriately.)

Perhaps a log of significant hands would be a more helpful tool than a spreadsheet.

Play the right way,
Irieguy