Standard Top Set(66) Party 2/4

AceHiStation · #1 09-08-2005, 01:26 PM

I have a very aggressive image, but it doesn't matter at this table because villain had just sat down and I ended up only having 22 hands on him at the end of this session. Easy decision to move it all in on the flop? Am I going to force big draws/two pair/overpairs to fold with a play like this? Curious how everyone else plays this hand.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (7 handed) converter

Button ($556.55)
SB ($175.40)
BB ($330.10)
Hero ($700.70)
MP1 ($554.30)
MP2 ($458.10)
CO ($383.90)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $2.
Hero calls $4, 2 folds, CO calls $4, 2 folds, BB checks.

Flop: ($14) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $9, CO raises to $18, BB folds, Hero raises to $50, CO raises to $150, Hero ???

maranello11 · #2 09-08-2005, 01:34 PM

could he not have 45 here? With all that raising it looks like a smaller set or the straight, the re-raises dont make sense for 2 pair or even a flush draw or over pair, for they would just call your re-raise to 50.

#3 09-08-2005, 01:39 PM

I doubt that he has two pair given the board, obviously the straight is possible but I don't think that you're worried about that and neither am I (at least not without any info on player). If 2 pair is out of the question, then he probably has 77-TT (assuming any bigger pair would have raised prelop), a set or a big draw. Given that he would be scared by many turn cards if he has a mid-overpair, and if he has a draw hes not going anywhere, I'd say a push here is optimal.

maranello11 · #4 09-08-2005, 01:42 PM

I just dont see 1010 here or and over pair for that matter, I know there are bad players on this site but all these re-raises is screaming a set or straight, either way I say push.

tagtastic · #5 09-08-2005, 01:51 PM

You're up against another set, a straight, a big draw (A2c-A5c) or a horribly played overpair (this line is not that uncommon for JJ-AA on Party I'm happy to say).

You're beating 3 out of these 4 situations pretty badly (he's 30% at best) and if he has the straight, you're still 35% to win (30% if he has the best possible here, 4c5c).

The 3 out of 4 things you're beating can definitely outdraw you, therefore pushing is your only move. I wouldn't be surprised to see 45s more likely than any other hand here, however I still think this push is definitely +EV.

ahnuld · #6 09-08-2005, 01:54 PM

DO IT

#7 09-08-2005, 02:02 PM

I started to say that OOP, you must push this...

but I can see a case for calling. If he has a lower set and you smooth-call/check, he will push the turn (if its a non-club). If you re-raise all-in on flop and he has 22, he might lay-down -- (but I doubt most players would).

given his betting pattern, I just don't think he has 2 clubs, unless its 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]... 2-pair seems unlikely given the board cards...

so how often will he lay-down a set here after already putting that much money in? Net net, I see an argument for calling if he has an overpair or a smaller set and will push the turn... but too many cards might kill that action...

net net, he has 77-99, a small set or 54... most of the time he won't get away from his set if you push here so push in case a club comes on turn and just suckout vs 54...

The Bear · #8 09-08-2005, 02:29 PM

I probably push because I don't expect him to fold, but I don't think it's necessarily bad to wait. After putting half his stack in on the flop I don't see how this guy can fold the turn/river if you bleed him one street at a time, regardless of the action killers that come off.

Also, I definitely raise PF.

The Bear

The Bear · #9 09-08-2005, 02:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The 3 out of 4 things you're beating can definitely outdraw you, therefore pushing is your only move.

[/ QUOTE ]

That doesn't make any sense to me.

Heimdal · #10 09-08-2005, 02:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Also, I definitely raise PF.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is this? Game is 7-handed. You dont want anyone else to take control of the hand or...?

It's just not fun to get 3 callers (unless you flop a set). And if someone makes a big reraise, you should probably fold when you could have limped in, called a standard raise and flopped a set.