Varience....

xGoreDudex · #1 07-24-2005, 06:44 PM

Well, this isn't a bad beat post. However, today I experinced at -30bb downswing. I've definatley heard of a lot worse. I can't recall loosing a lot of "big" pots today, just a lot of little ones.

I will say I found that I didn't tilt. I kept to my strict pre-flop play, and post-flop, well I was a little card dead so the fold button got pushed quite a bit.

My question for you Poo-Bah's out there. Today I played about 350 hands and was -30bb. At what point is it just varience, or just plain playing poorly. I understand that swings such as this are common in poker, however, I'd like to make sure that it's just varience and not my bad play.

Any suggestions?

G.

tiltaholic · #2 07-24-2005, 06:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Well, this isn't a bad beat post. However, today I experinced at -30bb downswing. I've definatley heard of a lot worse. I can't recall loosing a lot of "big" pots today, just a lot of little ones.

I will say I found that I didn't tilt. I kept to my strict pre-flop play, and post-flop, well I was a little card dead so the fold button got pushed quite a bit.

My question for you Poo-Bah's out there. Today I played about 350 hands and was -30bb. At what point is it just varience, or just plain playing poorly. I understand that swings such as this are common in poker, however, I'd like to make sure that it's just varience and not my bad play.

Any suggestions?

G.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm not a poobah but:

30 bb is not a downswing. that is all.

DCWildcat · #3 07-24-2005, 06:57 PM

30BB downswing is a daily occurance for some people.

I lost 120BB over about 300 hands once, and I'm a pretty new player. It was the most incredible experience of my life. So many good starting hands turned into expensive 2nd best hands.
My winrates with following hands: AA: 0/1 KK: 1/4 QQ: 0/1 TT: 0/1. Lost a few AK in there too. I lost on 2/3 of my flopped sets and 1/2 of my flushes.

If anyone wants to dig up the real stats, my username is DCWildcat on interpoker. You may enjoy laughing/crying over them.

POKhER · #4 07-24-2005, 07:04 PM

If it makes you feel better, i lost 60BB+ today so cheer up [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] at .50/1 level too, on my 2nd day of it.

Which means i move back down to fun .25/.50 *yawns* [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

flo · #5 07-24-2005, 07:19 PM

30bb isn't much of a downswing, you can loose that in a short session.
If you feel unsure, post hands. Review them on your own, and if you find something were you aren't sure if you did the right thing, post it.

SoftcoreRevolt · #6 07-24-2005, 07:19 PM

It can be variance at 3,000 hands, let alone 300.

moot · #7 07-24-2005, 07:26 PM

Yes, 30 BB downswings are fairly common. In fact, to maximize profit potential you need to get used to the ups and downs of poker. Pumping a flush draw when it's 5 handed is a +EV play, but some days you'll pump all your strong draws and miss every single one, and it'll hurt. Same thing goes with hands like KQs. Some people get scared to pump these preflop because they miss sometimes, but those aren't the people who make the most money in the long run.

You just have to get used to pushing any edge you can find, and then rolling with the punches. Too low a varience means you're doing something WRONG, and actually failing to make correct plays when you have an edge.

Just wait till your first real 100BB (or more) downswing. That's always fun. Some people say that big downswings often relate to player error, and to some degree this can be true (so it's worth taking a hard look and your game), but to some degree they can't be avoided so you just have to get used to them.

shadow29 · #8 07-24-2005, 07:29 PM

At 6-max 100 BBs is not a downswing.

At full I'd say maybe 50 BBs is not a downswing. Depends on the limits, I guess.

Don't let swings dictate how you play.

How many hands are you likely to play in your poker career? Hundreds of thousands for me. How many BBs are you going to win in your poker career? Tens or hundreds of thousands for me. What is 300/100,000 or 30/10,000? Nothing.

Strive to eliminate emotion from your game and you'll go a long way.

topspin · #9 07-24-2005, 07:33 PM

Count the dips for yourself:

bottomset · #10 07-24-2005, 07:36 PM

for me its usually bad play, at least a good chunk of it, i don't run off and blame it on variance, since I don't think i'm good enough to the point where I'm always confident in how I played

I tend to go back and go through whole sessions a day or 2later .. good or bad and the bad sessions tend to have a lot of boy that was dumb moments