risk of ruin for maths people

[imported_bingobazza]

Can anyone tell me what a correct bankroll would be for $3/6 NL ($600 max) if I average 10Big Bets/100, 8BB/100 and 6BB/100 3 tabling with a less than 5% required risk of ruin?
Im just too dumb to work this out by myself...so any help is appreciated.

Bingo

[sawseech]

the only person who can determine this is you

oh 10/bb/100
you should be good with 6 buyins if that is your actual rate at this limit

[radioheadfan]

To answer this you need to figure out the variance on your win rate. Win rate alone means nothing if we don't know what kind of flucuations you experience while acheiving that rate. Keep a speadsheet of wins/losses per hour for about 4 weeks of regular play to get a reasonable estimate of your variance. With a variance in hand, computing the risk of ruin is straight forward.

[radioheadfan]

As an aside, I think 40 full buy-ins will almost surely guarantee you that < 5% risk of ruin figure.

But I'm very careful with my bankroll.

[imported_bingobazza]

Very good point...Im trying to be more careful than I am at present, as I had a 4 buy in drop yesterday when my overpairs were cracked by sets 3 times in 10 minutes, (my worst 1 day drop in 30000 hands), so I got to thinking about this issue and couldnt come up with a decent figure myself. It did highlight that my variance is lowish tho...any thoughts are appreciated.

Bingo

[sawseech]

if your worst 1 day drop in over a month is 4 buyins your negvar is close to nonexistant, which indicates excellent stealing and consistently effective reads and actions

6 buyins should more than cut it

reminds me of that sexy mofo schwah

[pho75]

I use this formula:
Bankroll needed = -(SD^2/2*hourly win rate)ln(risk of ruin)

SD=standard deviation

I got it from the excellent article on bankroll consideration from

http://www.bet-the-pot.com/bankroll-...on-page43.html