Weak Overcard Outs-Clearing

[W. Deranged]

Note there is no backdoor flush draw in hand three, which may be very significant for this hand.

[Two_Slick]

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1) I am calling. He basicly called 3 cold in SB, I think he flops a set, maybe has pocket 9's with , I don't think you win this hand with out improving.


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I think you're giving the donk way too much credit for a hand here. I put him on having 2 cards [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Two_Slick]

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However you have at least 3 solid outs and are getting 10-1 to continue.


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Not to mention your overcards still have a tiny amount of value (maybe .5 or 1 out) + the implied odds when you hit your straight. I'm not folding until I see the turn. I hate getting raised here by the button, but the SB is along to pad the pot probably. To those who voted raise... I don't see anyway you can raise this (what do you do when you get 3-bet by the button?).

[Moneyline]

IMO the flops in these hands are a lot worse than they first appear. No offense meant to OP, but this probably makes them bad candidates to determine what you should typically do with overcards. Anyway, the reason I think they are bad for your hand is because they are as coordinated as a non-monotone flop can get. This makes it much more likely than usual for you to lose when you catch a pair. On flops like this I think you need a much better hand than normal to win at showdown.

This isn't a problem for hand one, because with all your nut outs you will have a much better hand than usual if you catch a good card. In hand 2, however, your draws are far less appealing. Spiking a queen here will win you less than usual because of the coordinated board. Spiking a T or 9 will win you even less because A) you're very unlikely to get paid off by a worse hand with 4 to a straight staring your opponents in the face, and B) you often won't have the best hand when you catch a T. The only real "concealed" draw you have is a rather unlikely backdoor flush.

I think the pot is too big to fold on the flop, but I also think that your draws are too weak to merit a raise because on this board you'll often run into straights, flushes, and suited connectors that flopped 2 pair.

[W. Deranged]

Moneyline...

Good points. FWIW, I picked this flop in particularly because I think it has a lot of interesting things going on. The polls really are not about "what to do with overcards." I'm most interested in how everything (particularly the nature of the players in the pot and board texture) affect the decision.

[Derek in NYC]

Man I must be reading too quick!

[hobbsmann]

Apparently I'm a LAG because I raise all three of these.

[W. Deranged]

1. Hand #2 is pretty clearly a raise here. You have so much equity from the combination of draws here that failing to raise can only hurt. Allowing the TAG behind you to raise is bad. Take control of the hand. Anyone who votes for a call is playing too tight-weak here in my opinion and is not maximizing their chance to win the hand.

#3. This was the hand that I actually played the other night. Many advocate a fold, which isn't bad, but I urge everyone to consider the players involved. The 2+2er may realize the move I'm making but will also realize that his equity against two opponents may be poor and that his odds given the flop raise are slim. Donk in SB will shut down after my raise and may give up the pot to me. All my Qs, 10s, and 9, likely become clean outs if a raise forces button to fold.

Folding is safe here and I actually don't think calling is offensive, but given the reads I think max value is certainly in raising. Short-handed pots like this I like to focus on getting as many hands as I can heads up with the fish, particularly if there is money in the pot dead already.

[Entity]

I raise #1 and #2 (1 is easy, 2 is close), and fold #3.

Rob

[spamuell]

In hand 2, what hand range do you put the TAG on the button who cold-called your CO openraise on?